Polymarket traders are not expecting Microsoft to repeat the nearly 22% share-price increase recorded during the week of July's fourth-quarter earnings announcement. Microsoft will release first-quarter results after trading closes on Wednesday. Microsoft shares rose more than 15% on the day following the July 29 results. A weekly increase matching July's would take Microsoft shares to about $648.
Polymarket traders assign a 72% probability to Microsoft reaching $540 sometime this week, a 1.6% increase from Tuesday's $531.33 close. Polymarket traders assign a 52% probability to a $547.50 price, representing a 3% increase from that close. Polymarket traders put the probability of reaching $562.50 at 28%. Polymarket traders give Microsoft a 16% probability of reaching $570. Polymarket operates on Polygon.
Benzinga Pro data show analysts forecast first-quarter revenue of $90.70 billion, compared with $77.67 billion a year earlier. Benzinga Pro data show analysts forecast earnings per share of $4.72, compared with the $4.13 Microsoft previously posted. Microsoft has exceeded analysts' revenue and earnings-per-share forecasts for more than 10 consecutive quarters.
Microsoft said first-quarter capital expenditure would be above $50 billion. Microsoft maintained a calendar 2026 capital-expenditure outlook of about $175 billion, below the approximately $190 billion outlook given in April. Polymarket traders assign a 36% probability to quarterly capital expenditure exceeding $56 billion. Concerns over neocloud financing and major technology companies' spending are putting pressure on the Magnificent Seven. Yorkville's Dan Ives expects that pressure to affect Microsoft and other major technology companies before earnings.
Bloomberg reported that Microsoft offered buyouts on Monday to roughly 60,000 employees in the U.S., Canada, India and the U.K. Bloomberg reported that the offers formed part of an effort to adapt Microsoft's workforce for AI.
Microsoft shares finished Tuesday at $531.33, a decline of 0.24%. Microsoft shares subsequently rose 0.25% to $532.65 in extended trading. Microsoft shares have gained 12.35% year to date. Microsoft shares have fallen 1.98% over the past year. Benzinga Edge rankings place Microsoft's Momentum score in the 88th percentile. Benzinga Edge rankings place Microsoft's Growth score in the 96th percentile.
Polymarket Traders Doubt Microsoft Will Repeat July's Earnings Surge
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Summary
Polymarket traders show low confidence in Microsoft repeating July’s 22% earnings-driven rally. The tech giant reports Q1 results after Wednesday’s close. Analysts expect $90.70 billion revenue and $4.72 EPS. On-chain data suggests limited retail buying pressure. Polymarket gives a 72% chance of Microsoft hitting $540 this week, up 1.6% from Tuesday’s $531.33. Altcoins to watch remain in focus as market attention shifts.
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