Polymarket traders are betting that Hamas will commit to disarming by December 31, 2026, with the leading outcome sitting at a 61% probability. The prediction market, which launched on June 30 and runs on the Polygon blockchain, has already attracted over $2.98 million in total volume.
The deal that moved the needle
On July 30, US President Donald Trump announced that a US-led Board of Peace had reached an agreement with Hamas and other armed factions in Gaza. Trump called it a “historic milestone.”
The agreement lays out a comprehensive 15-point roadmap. It covers weapons decommissioning, the transfer of governing authority to a technocratic National Committee for Administration, and international oversight mechanisms designed to verify compliance.
The details are supposed to be finalized within 14 days of the announcement. Hamas has expressed conditional acceptance, tying its willingness to disarm to Israeli withdrawals and other stipulations. Some of those conditions trace back to ceasefire terms established as early as October 2025.
Israel has issued no formal statement in response to the agreement.
What the market is actually pricing
The December 31, 2026 outcome has accumulated more than $892,000 in volume on that specific share alone. Resolution of the market hinges on an official or widely acknowledged announcement from Hamas confirming their commitment to disarm, either fully or partially, by the end of the year. It doesn’t require actual disarmament to be completed. It requires a credible public commitment.
Prediction markets as geopolitical sensors
Major crypto-native media outlets have barely covered this market over the past 30 days. The action is being driven by geopolitical interest rather than crypto-native speculation, which suggests the platform’s user base is expanding beyond its DeFi roots.
Polymarket running this market on Polygon means every trade is transparent and verifiable. The market distills a 15-point negotiation roadmap into a single binary: does Hamas commit to disarming by December 31, yes or no.
What crypto investors should watch
If the agreement’s details are finalized on schedule within 14 days, the 61% probability could spike considerably. Israel’s continued silence is a key variable. A formal Israeli rejection of the framework could crater the probability, while Israeli endorsement would likely push the market well above 70%.
Hamas’s conditional acceptance is tied to ceasefire terms from October 2025. If those terms become a new point of contention, the entire framework could unravel. Hamas might ultimately commit to disarming in January 2027, making the December 31 bet a loss even if the peace process succeeds.