Polymarket trader xm39 buys 274,500 'US Invades Iran' shares amid tensions

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A Polymarket trader known as xm39 has made a notable value investing move in crypto by purchasing 274,500 shares in the event "US Invades Iran Before 2027." The trades were executed at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, totaling a $41,700 investment. The trader now holds 642,300 'Yes' shares, with a total cost of $127,100 and an unrealized loss of $27,600. Meanwhile, the associated address added 28,400 WTI short positions, but after closing 107,400 contracts at $84.86, it incurred a $131,500 loss. The strategy then shifted to longs, with 64,700 WTI contracts purchased, now holding $5.531 million in positions at 20x leverage, showing a $18,200 gain and a 6.6% margin return. The move appears to align with key support and resistance levels in the oil market.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket trader "xm39" continues to increase bets on geopolitical conflict-related events, purchasing a total of 274,500 shares on Polymarket predicting the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027, in three separate transactions at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, with a total investment of approximately $41,700.

Currently, xm39 holds a total of 642,300 Yes tokens, with an accumulated cost of approximately $127,100 and a paper loss of approximately $27,600.

Additionally, its associated address added approximately 28,400 WTI short positions逆势, with a trading volume of about $2.401 million. As oil prices continued to rise, the address closed all 107,400 short positions at 9:01 AM at an average closing price of approximately $84.86, realizing a loss of about $131,500. Just about 10 minutes later, the address switched from short to long. It then sequentially bought approximately 64,700 WTI contracts and currently holds a long position of about $5.531 million with 20x full margin, yielding an unrealized profit of approximately $18,200, a margin return rate of about 6.6%, and a liquidation price of approximately $64.88.

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