ME News reports that on August 28 (UTC+8), according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), between 14:00 and 14:02 today, Polymarket trader “fafafafafafafafsadasdq” executed five consecutive “Yes” buy orders, betting on the following: - A 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with an implied probability of approximately 1.4%; - At least a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with an implied probability of approximately 0.4%; - A 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with an implied probability of approximately 3.9%; - Exactly one rate cut in 2026, with an implied probability of approximately 9.0%; - A rate cut before December, with an implied probability of approximately 12.0%. All five trades were executed within approximately 130 seconds, totaling around $238.90. Currently, the trader’s total cost basis for all interest rate-related positions is approximately $5,189.70, with a current value of $4,214.80, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $974.90. The largest position is the “Yes” share on the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, holding approximately 119,600 shares; the average entry probability was about 1.59%, with a cumulative investment of approximately $1,909.60. Meanwhile, the trader’s associated Hyperliquid address (0xe8e4) continues to hold a 50x isolated short position of 268.7 contracts on the S&P 500, with a position value of approximately $2.076 million. The average entry price was 7,667.5 points; the current price is approximately 7,724.1 points, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $15,200. The liquidation price for this short position is currently at 7,771.1 points—just 47.0 points (approximately 0.61%) above the current price. Market news indicates that Walsh will deliver a Jackson Hole-themed speech tonight at 22:00 Beijing time; this event has been officially listed on the Federal Reserve’s schedule. (Source: BlockBeats)
Polymarket trader buys five rate cut bets to hedge against Washk’s dovish risk
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Summary
On August 28 (UTC+8), a Polymarket trader executed five buy orders for Yes positions within 130 seconds, hedging against the risk-reward profile of a potential Fed rate cut. The trader also holds a 50x isolated short position on 268.7 S&P 500 contracts on Hyperliquid, valued at $2.076 million. On-chain trading signals indicate total rate-related positions at $4,214.8 million, with a floating loss of $974.9 million. The Fed’s Washk is speaking tonight at 22:00 Beijing time.
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