HuoXing Finance report: On July 30, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, Polymarket trader "xm39" initiated a trial position yesterday by purchasing $803 worth of "Yes" shares on the prediction "The United States will invade Iran before 2027." Starting early today, the trader executed 223 consecutive buy orders within approximately six hours. Among their history of 42 open positions, 50 closed trades, and the most recent 500 activities, this marks their first large-scale bet on war and macro-geopolitical events. As of publication, they currently hold a total of 806,700 "Yes" shares, with a total cost basis of approximately $223,000, an average price of $0.2763, and a floating loss of approximately -4.12%. Monitoring shows that "xm39" is highly associated with an external wallet starting with 0x40f, which serves as Hyperliquid’s largest long position in WTI crude oil. This address also appears to be continuously betting on crude oil price movements amid escalating geopolitical tensions—marking the first time in nearly a year that this address has opened a crude oil contract. Yesterday, the trader accumulated 133,300 WTI crude oil contracts (CL), with a total turnover of approximately $10.791 million and a weighted average execution price of $80.93. Today, they added a net further position of 2,581.3 contracts. As of publication, this whale holds a 155,200-contract long position in CL with 20x full margin, valued at approximately $13.22 million, at an average entry price of $81.80; the position currently shows a floating profit of approximately $510,500, yielding a return rate of about 80.3%. As the position is rolled forward, the liquidation price has been raised to $81.56—now inverted above the entry price. Fund flow data shows: Today, the whale withdrew approximately $246,400 in four separate transfers to the 0x2000 system address (HyperEVM). The first withdrawal of $100,000 occurred early this morning; roughly one minute later, "xm39" began aggressively adding to their Polymarket position. The net amount withdrawn—$246,400—is closely aligned with the $222,200 invested today in the prediction market. Considering address associations, timing of operations, and capital scale, this fund movement strongly suggests that these funds were transferred across chains and subsequently deployed to bet on "The United States will invade Iran before 2027."
Polymarket trader bets $1.3 million on oil amid geopolitical tensions
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Summary
A Polymarket trader known as 'xm39' has used on-chain trading signals to place a $1.3 million bet on WTI crude oil futures on Hyperliquid. The same trader also invested $222,200 in a prediction market for a potential U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. With a CL crude oil position of 155,200 contracts valued at $13.22 million, the trader holds a floating profit of $510,500. Prior to placing these bets, they withdrew $246,400 to a HyperEVM address, indicating a calculated risk-to-reward ratio in their strategy.
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