Polymarket Seeks to Reenter the U.S. Market Amid CFTC Negotiations

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that the prediction market platform Polymarket has entered negotiations with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lift its four-year ban and seek to reopen its mainchain trading platform, built on the Polygon blockchain and settled in USDC, to U.S. users. In 2022, Polymarket’s parent company, Blockratize, was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC for operating an unregistered platform and was forced to block U.S. users. What makes this renewed negotiation unique is that, of the CFTC’s five commissioners, only Chair Michael Selig currently remains in office—meaning this major decision will rest solely on his judgment. Over the past year, Selig has consistently advocated for prediction markets: in February, he issued a warning that he would sue state governments attempting to interfere with federal regulation; in March, he released compliance guidance and publicly solicited industry feedback; and this month, he stated that forcing prediction markets offshore would repeat the collapse seen with FTX. However, the notion of “single-decision maker” has sparked skepticism. Analysts warn that advancing this matter without committee consensus risks creating policy instability—should vacant seats be filled in the future, a new commission could immediately overturn any decision signed solely by Selig. If ultimately approved, Polymarket’s mainchain platform would become the first crypto-native platform纳入 the U.S. federal derivatives regulatory framework, while also ending the gray area in which users previously circumvented the ban via VPNs. Neither Polymarket nor the CFTC has yet responded to this development.