Polymarket Reports 98.4% Accuracy in Predicting U.S. Midterm Election Outcomes

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Release Time: 2026/11/05 00:35:28

POLYX

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Summary

Polymarket achieved 98.4% accuracy in the options market for U.S. midterm election outcomes, correctly settling 419 out of 427 popular options. Seven markets had opposite outcomes, and 78 remain open. In 10 key races, Polymarket predicted results with 99% probability, outperforming major news outlets by up to four hours. The platform’s Fear & Greed Index reflected strong confidence ahead of the vote.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket posted on X that, on the day before the election, 419 market outcomes aligned with the popular choice, accounting for 98.4%; 7 outcomes contradicted the popular choice, and 78 remain unsettled.

Polymarket also stated that, in 10 key elections, it predicted the outcomes with 99% probability, approximately 31 minutes earlier than the median time at which CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press (AP) announced their results. In the Michigan Senate race, its prediction was released about four hours ahead of mainstream media.

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