Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of the U.S. invading Iran before March 31 has dropped to 11%, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability of the U.S. invading Iran before April 30 is currently at 62%, up 3% in 24 hours, with total trading volume for this event contract exceeding $42.6 million.
Today, U.S. officials said the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East, potentially ushering in a dangerous new phase of conflict if President Trump chooses to escalate the war. Officials stated that any potential ground operation would not be a full-scale invasion but could involve coordinated raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry units. Such missions could expose U.S. personnel to a range of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it remains unclear whether Trump will approve or reject the Pentagon’s full or partial plan.
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