Polymarket probability of the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike in September drops to 49%

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Fed news shows the Polymarket probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September has fallen to 49%, down 10 percentage points in a day. The decline follows weaker-than-expected ADP employment data, which showed only 38,000 jobs added in August. Traders are now focusing on the nonfarm payrolls report due on September 4. A strong report could increase the odds of a rate hike, while a weak one may trigger a sell-off. Altcoins to watch could react sharply based on the data. A moderate slowdown is viewed as the best outcome for risk assets.

Huo Xing Finance reports that PPP predictive market tools show the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September on Polymarket has dropped to 49%, a 10% decline over 24 hours. The previously released U.S. “Small Non-Farm” August ADP employment data came in below expectations, with only 38,000 jobs added—the smallest increase since January. Market focus has now shifted to the August non-farm payrolls report, due on September 4, which will be the last complete employment report before the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting. Market analysts suggest that strong data could further increase bets on rate hikes, while weak data may trigger recession trades; only an “orderly cooling” between these two extremes could provide a relatively favorable environment for risk assets.

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