Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restoring service for U.S. customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in the last 24 hours.
If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the general public before the specified date, this event resolves as "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves as "No". Eligible reopening methods include public beta or public waitlist; closed beta and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not counted by default unless confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Resolution will be based primarily on official Anthropic announcements, with reference to consensus reporting from major media outlets.
Due to U.S. government export controls citing national security concerns, Anthropic abruptly suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions primarily targeted foreign users, Anthropic ultimately disabled access for all users, including those in the U.S., due to difficulties in real-time user identification, redirecting requests to weaker models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House regarding model capabilities, potential jailbreak risks, and other issues. The company has publicly stated that the ban may stem from a misunderstanding and is actively working to restore access.
Odaily Seer continuously monitors prediction markets to see changes before pricing.