PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket event predicting "When will the U.S. and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire?", the probability for August 14 is currently at 34%, down 1% week-over-week; the probability for August 31 is currently at 51%, down 3% week-over-week.
According to the settlement rules, the market will settle as "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the specified cutoff date (23:59 Eastern Time), there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not conduct qualifying military action against Iran. Qualifying military action refers to air strikes or ground-to-ground missile attacks initiated by the United States that directly target locations within Iran.
It is reported that the U.S. military has conducted strikes on Iranian military targets for the 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected Trump’s ceasefire proposal, with neither side showing signs of de-escalation in the short term. However, according to informed sources, Trump has grown increasingly frustrated by the prolonged conflict, and his advisors are concerned that the war has driven up prices, eroded his approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of over a dozen U.S. soldiers, steadily depleting the political capital of his administration and potentially further impacting the Republican Party’s prospects in the upcoming midterm elections.
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