The probability of Trump pardoning SBF before July 31 on Polymarket has dropped below 1%, with trading volume in this market reaching approximately $836,000. Polymarket has not yet launched any other prediction markets with different expiration dates. According to market rules, this market will settle as "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Trump before August 1, 2026, at 11:59 AM; otherwise, it will settle as "No." A U.S. Senate resolution opposes granting a pardon to SBF, the founder of FTX, stating that SBF should not be granted a pardon or commutation under any circumstances.
Polymarket prediction for Trump pardoning SBF drops below 1%
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Summary
The Polymarket price prediction for a Trump pardon of Sam Bankman-Fried has fallen below 1%. The market, with $836,000 in trading volume, will settle as "Yes" if SBF receives clemency by August 1, 2026. The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution opposing any pardon or sentence reduction. Bitcoin price prediction markets remain unaffected, with no direct connection to this outcome.
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