Polymarket is in early talks to raise roughly $1 billion at a valuation north of $20 billion, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 4—a move that, if completed, would put the prediction-market startup much closer to rival Kalshi, which secured a $22 billion valuation in May. Polymarket has not confirmed a deal and declined to comment; the reported figures and investor group should be treated as preliminary. Where this round would sit in Polymarket’s recent funding history - The reported >$20 billion target would be at least ~33% higher than a Bloomberg-reported April valuation of $15 billion, and more than double the figure Bloomberg cited for an October 2025 round (~$9 billion). Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), however, said its October investment reflected an about $8 billion valuation before that capital—differences that likely reflect different valuation bases rather than outright contradiction. - April’s financing picture is mixed between reported and confirmed items: Bloomberg said roughly $1 billion closed at a $15 billion valuation with participation from D.E. Shaw and G Squared, while ICE separately confirmed a $600 million investment on March 27 and had already put $1 billion into Polymarket in October 2025. ICE did not disclose the valuation attached to its March investment. Regulatory pivot to the U.S. and product rollout - Polymarket has re-entered the regulated U.S. market: CFTC records list QCX LLC (doing business as Polymarket US) as a designated contract market as of July 9, 2025. The exchange has filed rule changes covering fees, liquidity programs, surveillance and trading procedures. - Bloomberg reported that Polymarket opened its U.S. exchange after the April financing. Polymarket’s U.S. access page indicates the app is being rolled out from a waitlist, suggesting staged access rather than an instant nationwide launch. Revenue and trading traction - Bloomberg sources said Polymarket’s annualized revenue has more than tripled since April to above $1.2 billion; Reuters reported it had passed $1 billion in June. These are annualized metrics—projections based on recent performance—not audited full-year revenue. - Trading volumes show rapid U.S. growth but uneven overall expansion. Combined July volume across Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi hit a record $50.6 billion: Kalshi led with $37.7 billion; Polymarket US jumped 54% to $5 billion; Polymarket’s international venue fell 26% to $7.9 billion. How Polymarket stacks up versus Kalshi - Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation on May 7, led by Coatue with investors including Sequoia, a16z, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK. Kalshi reported huge institutional growth—an 800% rise in institutional trading volume over six months—and said annualized trading volume rose from $52 billion to $178 billion (company-supplied figures). - Kalshi has also claimed more than 90% of U.S. prediction market activity; independent July data showed Kalshi processing almost three times the combined volume of Polymarket’s U.S. and international venues. - Investors eyeing Polymarket may be valuing factors beyond raw U.S. volume: its international reach, crypto-settlement infrastructure, brand and ties to ICE could support a higher valuation despite Kalshi’s larger trading footprint. Valuation caveats and risks - Volume alone doesn’t equal value. Fees, customer retention, compliance costs, market composition and post-event trading behavior affect revenue quality—July open interest fell after the World Cup even as monthly trading reached a record. - Regulatory and legal uncertainty remains a material risk. Several states contend that certain event contracts—particularly those tied to sports—constitute gambling under state law. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint in January asking a court to stop Polymarket and QCX from offering what it says is unlicensed wagering in Nevada. - There’s an ongoing industry dispute over whether the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over federally registered event-contract platforms; outcomes could reshape market access. - Some states have taken friendlier approaches: North Carolina enacted a law in July recognizing CFTC-regulated prediction markets and imposing a 6% tax on their trading-fee revenue beginning in 2027. Bottom line A confirmed $1 billion round at a >$20 billion valuation would narrow the gap with Kalshi and underscore investor appetite for prediction markets as they expand into sports, economics and crypto-linked contracts. But the financing is still at an early stage, with no term sheet or closing date disclosed, and valuation upside will be weighed against regulatory, legal and revenue-quality risks as the sector matures.
Polymarket Eyes $1B Fundraise at >$20B Valuation, Closing Gap with Kalshi
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Summary
Polymarket is in early talks for a $1 billion raise at a valuation above $20 billion, per ChainGPT, as it navigates MiCA and CFT compliance. The funding would narrow its gap with Kalshi, which hit $22 billion in May. Polymarket’s valuation has risen from $9 billion in October 2025 to $15 billion in April. The platform is re-entering the U.S. under CFTC rules and has seen annualized revenue jump to $1.2 billion. Kalshi reported $178 billion in annualized volume and 800% growth in institutional trading. Polymarket’s global reach and crypto infrastructure may attract investors, though regulatory risks under MiCA and CFT remain.
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