Polymarket Account Group Achieves 98% Accuracy on KPMG-Audited Earnings Bets

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on September 12, according to the Wall Street Journal, a network of 19 interconnected Polymarket accounts placed concentrated bets on earnings reports of publicly traded companies audited by KPMG over the past several months, with 41 out of 42 trades profitable—a success rate of 98%—resulting in cumulative profits of approximately $22,000. Analysis by Bubblemaps revealed that these accounts bet on the earnings of 18 KPMG clients, including Wells Fargo, Home Depot, DoorDash, and General Mills, with funds flowing complexly among the 19 accounts, suggesting they may be controlled by the same individual or team. Notably, this investigation coincides with U.S. law enforcement probing a KPMG employee suspected of insider trading via Polymarket. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the employee is under investigation specifically for betting on whether public companies’ quarterly earnings would exceed market expectations. It remains unconfirmed whether the identified account group is linked to this employee, and Bubblemaps emphasized that its analysis alone does not prove insider trading occurred. KPMG stated it has a zero-tolerance policy for trading based on non-public client information and has strengthened its monitoring measures. As the prediction market grows rapidly, insider trading risks on Polymarket are drawing continued attention from regulators and law enforcement agencies.