Although advertising spending is increasingly shifting toward streaming and digital platforms, the political advertising battle still primarily takes place on free broadcast television channels.
Advertising intelligence firm AdImpact says that broadcast television networks are expected to capture the largest share of political advertising spending ahead of the midterm elections.
AdImpact predicts that the 2025–2026 election cycle will be the most expensive on record, with total spending projected at $11.6 billion, surpassing the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential election cycle and the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterm elections.
AdImpact found that approximately $5.6 billion, or 48%, of expected ad spending ahead of the midterm elections will go to broadcast and television companies.
StoneX stock research analyst Daniel Kurnos said in an interview: “This is still a local game. Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win each county. If you have to win each county, you have to reach the voters in those counties.”
Kurnos said that audiences watching NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, or their local affiliates are typically more politically active: "You have to appeal to the people who vote. You have to appeal to the votes that really matter."
This makes political advertising one of the last remaining strongholds where broadcast and television still dominate.
Although broadcasters are expected to capture about half of political ad spending during this cycle, they account for only 7.7% of the projected $470 billion-plus in overall U.S. ad spending this year, according to Magna data from S&P Global released in July.
Coverage, Demographics, and Trust
Terry Nelson, co-founding partner of Plus Communications and former national political director for President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign, told CNBC that broadcast ad slots allow political strategists to “reach a large number of voters at the highest cost efficiency possible.”
Despite the cord-cutting trend reshaping the television landscape, broadcast television remains free and widely available as users abandon cable.
According to Nielsen’s latest monthly streaming report, The Gauge, broadcast television surpassed cable television in viewing time in July. Broadcast television accounted for 19.5% of TV viewing time, while cable television accounted for 18.7%. Streaming led significantly with 49%.
Nelson noted that broadcast television remains particularly effective at delivering high viewership for live sports events.
He said, "If you think about the NFL audience, for example, you still get massive reach across large groups. No matter how you segment this population—whether by men, women, older adults, younger people, or other groups—NFL games still cover a significant portion of each."
Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, a trade organization representing the local broadcasting industry, summarized the advantages of broadcast television during election cycles as “trust, reach, and because it works.”
Seitter told CNBC in a statement that television is considered reliable, which is crucial for political campaigns.
He said, "Winning the voters' trust is equivalent to securing one vote for your candidate or issue."
He also stated that he believes broadcast television outperforms certain digital channels in promoting political candidates and issues.
Seitter said, "You might see political ads on social media, but you don’t trust the content because users have become accustomed to not believing what they hear or see on social media. In contrast, audiences trust local broadcast news, so when they see political ads there, they are more likely to believe the content because the platform has long-standing rules, regulations, and trust."
Smart strategy, or path dependence?
Seitter said political campaigns continue to run ads on traditional television because there is clear evidence that they influence voting behavior.
He said, "Nothing can drive polls like advertising on radio and television."
According to a study by TVB, 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said that broadcast or cable television is the most important advertising medium influencing their voting behavior.
Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at seller-side ad company Magnite, told CNBC that broadcast television is considered effective due to its long history with the platform.
He said, "Multiple studies have shown a correlation between the number of ad impressions you buy on television and shifts in polling numbers, as this medium has existed for about 70 years."
However, Brydges noted that he believes part of the advantage of broadcast television stems from path dependence.
He said, "Many campaign teams and consultants working for them are very accustomed to buying TV ads. There's an old saying that a political consultant will never be fired for recommending the purchase of more TV ads."
Win the midterm elections
Broadcasters have already begun to reap the benefits of increased advertising spending.
Publicly traded broadcasters including Nexstar Media Group, Gray Media, Sinclair, and E.W. Scripps all reported higher political advertising revenue in their most recent fiscal quarter and expect continued growth this fall as the midterm elections approach.
Kurnos of StoneX told CNBC that broadcasters rely on political advertising, a low-cost revenue source, to help manage debt.
He said, "They already have all the infrastructure in place to directly accept this type of advertising. You don't need to put effort into creativity or sales... so political ads are pure profit revenue."
Nexstar owns or operates at least 265 television stations, along with numerous websites and mobile applications. The company reported its highest quarterly revenue in history in its August earnings report, with net revenue reaching $1.99 billion and advertising revenue totaling $862 million.
Total revenue for the second fiscal quarter increased significantly, primarily due to the inclusion of broadcast competitor Tegna, which Nexstar officially acquired in March.
However, even excluding the additional revenue from acquisitions, the company still saw growth in its legacy Nexstar business during the second fiscal quarter, primarily driven by $75 million in political advertising revenue, as disclosed in its most recent earnings call.
Kurnos believes that Gray Media, though smaller in scale than Nexstar, is also worth noting.
He stated that the company’s television stations cover several of the most competitive and highest-advertising-spending markets: Gray is involved in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races.
He said, "Gray has always been the most effective political ad generator in the broadcast group."
Sinclair and Scripps also highlighted political advertising revenue as a key point in their most recent fiscal quarter earnings reports.
E.W. Scripps reported that political advertising revenue reached a second-quarter record high; Sinclair reported a 9% increase in political advertising revenue compared to the second quarter of the 2022 midterm election season.
E.W. Scripps CEO Adam Symson said on the company's second fiscal quarter earnings call: "No other medium delivers political messaging as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television."
The next frontier: Connecting TVs
At the other end of the media spectrum, AdImpact stated that connected TV is the fastest-growing category for political advertising spending. This category includes connected devices such as Apple TV or Roku.
AdImpact expects connected TV to capture 23% of advertising spending in this cycle, amounting to $2.7 billion, and is likely to continue increasing its share.
Brydges of Magnite said that connected TV (CTV) and free, ad-supported streaming channels, also known as FAST, have so far hindered some advertisers from fully leveraging high viewership due to their complexity and rapid evolution.
He said, "If you look at some FAST streaming services—like Pluto, Tubi, and others—campaign teams or advisors may not understand what they are. As a result, they might think, 'If I don’t understand it, it probably isn’t worth investing in.'"
However, he noted that he believes political advisors are increasingly coming to understand the benefits these platforms offer.
Pia Carusone, who leads the company’s political advertising division at SKDK, told CNBC that she values streaming for its ability to target specific audiences.
She said, "If you buy an NBC ad in New York City, for example, you're buying the entire market. Today, with the growth of streaming and CTV platforms, they can offer much more granular targeting. So we can reach these audiences more directly."
But Carusone ultimately stated that political advertising strategies rely on maintaining a diversified portfolio.
She said, "You can't just do digital ads. You can't just do linear TV. Today's top buyers advertise across the entire spectrum."