SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed just above $115 on Wednesday, nearly 20% below its June IPO price, while its 2056 bonds sank to a record low below 89.
The dual decline pushed the bonds’ yield to worst to 7.6% and reignited talk of an AI-driven valuation reset across stocks and crypto. SPCX now trades roughly 48% below its June peak of $225.64.
Bond Market Flashes a Warning Signal
SpaceX priced $25 billion in bonds in June across five tranches, with coupons ranging from 5.35% to 6.65%. The longest maturity, due in 2056, has fallen the most and now trades alongside junk-rated debt.
Zerohedge reported the bonds slipping below 89 this week, alongside a broader selloff in hyperscaler debt. The move echoes the market top signal analysts flagged shortly after the IPO priced.
Credit spreads on the 2056 notes have widened from roughly 175 basis points at issuance to more than 230 basis points now.
Meanwhile, the company reported a first-quarter net loss of $4.28 billion on $4.69 billion in revenue, fueling scrutiny of its bond math.
In turn, analysts argue that the gap explains why bondholders, unlike equity buyers, are pricing in more risk.
Schiff Frames SpaceX Selloff as a Broader Signal
Peter Schiff reposted the bond data and separately noted SPCX closed nearly 50% below its high. He called the drop a possible harbinger for other overhyped stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Schiff has issued a prior bond market warning, arguing that credit stress, not Bitcoin, would trigger the next major crash. However, his critics note a long history of bearish calls that have not always come to fruition.
Still, the timing aligns with broader concerns about AI-linked valuations. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 shortly after its debut, and the stock has since dropped roughly 29% from that milestone.
A delayed Starship test flight added to the negative sentiment this month.
Lockup Expiry Adds to the Pressure
SpaceX’s first major share unlock is scheduled for early August, two days after second-quarter earnings. Roughly 911.5 million shares, worth about $123 billion at recent prices, become eligible for sale.
Investors are already watching the stock’s share unlock schedule alongside dilution concerns tied to SpaceX’s reported Cursor AI acquisition. Some traders, however, still see a falling wedge pattern that could support a rebound near current levels.
Whether the stock and bond weakness spreads to crypto markets may become clearer once the lockup and earnings pass in August. Traders will likely watch SPCX bond yields as an early signal before any broader repricing hits digital assets.