Senior trader Peter Brandt believes that Bitcoin’s current price movement is insufficient to support a rapid shift into a new bull market. Meanwhile, the transfer of long-dormant Bitcoin on-chain has prompted market participants to remain cautious about the next directional move.
Brandt said the technical outlook remains weak.
Brandt shared Northstar’s weekly Bitcoin analysis on X, stating that, according to traditional chart analysis, there is currently insufficient evidence to suggest a bull market is imminent. The relevant charts show that Bitcoin has not yet reclaimed these key levels after previously breaking below the 50-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud zone.
Northstar believes the weekly trend remains weak; after breaking down from the rising wedge formed near the cycle high, the market has yet to recover. The chart also shows that Bitcoin has made multiple attempts to reclaim the 50-week moving average but has failed to hold above it, with the cloud zone still serving as the primary resistance.
Key resistance has not yet been reclaimed.
According to this analysis, before each of the past Bitcoin bull markets restarted, the price typically needed to first reclaim the 50-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud zone. If these levels are not broken, the market is more likely to remain range-bound or continue facing downward pressure.
Brandt did not directly predict that Bitcoin would fall further, but he stated that the current price action is insufficient to support a conclusion that a reversal upward is imminent. He also believes the market may not yet have completed its bottoming process, and a more sustained low may not occur before October 2026.
Bitcoin, long dormant, shows renewed activity
In addition to technical factors, on-chain fund movements have also drawn attention. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, in recent blocks, 500 bitcoins that had been inactive for over 10 years, along with 746 bitcoins held for 3 to 5 years, were transferred.
When these long-dormant bitcoins are transferred, they often attract traders' attention, as they sometimes appear before being sold. However, an on-chain transfer does not equate to these bitcoins having entered exchanges, nor does it necessarily mean immediate selling pressure will emerge.
Market sentiment remains divided.
Despite a cautious technical outlook, some market participants remain optimistic. Cryptocurrency analyst Luke Martin, while sharing related content, said, "The stars are aligning for BTC." He was referencing Kalshi's repost of CNBC host Jim Cramer's statement about "selling all Bitcoin."
In the crypto market, Cramer’s views are often seen by some traders as a contrarian signal, so such bearish remarks are sometimes interpreted as potentially bullish. However, based on current reports, the market’s clearer focus remains on two key points: technical resistance has not yet been overcome, and long-dormant positions are beginning to activate.