PEPE Rallies 25% as Whale Activity and Derivatives Surge

Pepe rallies as whales pile in and derivatives heat up — eyes on the 200-day EMA Pepe (PEPE) extended its rebound Friday, adding to a two-day surge that delivered roughly 22% and lifting the meme token about 25% for the week. The rally has been driven by renewed whale activity, shrinking exchange inventories and rising speculative interest — factors that together improve PEPE’s near-term outlook and point to a possible push toward the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.00000363. Whales lead the way On-chain data show large investors returning to PEPE as the price recovers from recent lows. Analytics firm Santiment logged seven PEPE transfers worth more than $1 million each on Thursday — the highest single-day tally since March 16. While big transfers can represent either accumulation or distribution, accompanying wallet-balance changes suggest accumulation this time. Exchange supply falls, big-wallet holdings rise Available supply on exchanges has declined from 82.75 trillion PEPE on August 12 to 81.30 trillion today — a drop of 1.45 trillion tokens that reduces the amount immediately available for sale. Over the same interval, major non-exchange addresses increased combined holdings from 80.50 trillion to 84.04 trillion PEPE, a rise of 3.54 trillion tokens. That pattern — whales pulling tokens off exchanges into custody — often signals fresh demand and can tighten liquidity, supporting further upside if market sentiment holds. Derivatives activity picks up Speculative positioning in derivatives is also ramping up. PEPE futures Open Interest climbed to a three-month high of $250 million from $209 million the prior day, a $41 million (about 19.6%) increase, per CoinGlass. The Open Interest-weighted funding rate sits positive at 0.0095%, meaning long holders are paying shorts — a net bullish tilt. Traders should note, however, that growing OI and positive funding can amplify liquidation risk if price momentum reverses, and meme coins are particularly prone to sharp swings in crowded trades. Technical picture: 200-day EMA the next test Technically, PEPE’s recent advance cleared several near-term hurdles. The token moved above the 50-day EMA ($0.00000283) and the 100-day EMA ($0.00000300), and surpassed its June 15 high of $0.00000314. The next meaningful resistance is the 200-day EMA around $0.00000363; a confirmed, sustained close above that level would mark a more decisive shift toward a bullish structure and could open a path to the May 10 high at $0.00000459. Momentum indicators support the upside: the MACD line has crossed above its signal line and the histogram sits in positive territory, indicating strengthening buying momentum. Conversely, failure to break the 200-day EMA could trigger profit-taking after this week’s sharp gains. On a pullback, the 100-day EMA ($0.00000300) and 50-day EMA ($0.00000283) are the likely initial supports; a decisive drop below both would expose the July 8 low at $0.00000255 and weaken the bullish case. Bottom line Renewed whale accumulation, declining exchange balances and rising futures activity have helped power PEPE’s recent bounce and set up a clear technical target at the 200-day EMA. That combination raises the odds of further gains, but traders should be mindful of higher volatility and liquidation risk as speculative positioning grows.