Palantir Surges 30% on Strong Q2 Earnings Despite Michael Burry's Short Position

ME News reports that on August 5 (UTC+8), U.S. stock Palantir surged nearly 30% after reporting earnings, becoming one of the day’s most prominent AI software stocks. The company’s second-quarter revenue increased 93% year-over-year to approximately $1.935 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.41. It also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.150–8.158 billion. The broader U.S. market also rallied, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at record highs, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.6%, signaling a clear rebound in risk appetite. It is reported that Michael Burry, one of the real-life inspirations behind the movie “The Big Short,” has consistently positioned Palantir at the center of the AI bubble narrative over the past several months. According to Scion Asset Management’s Q3 2023 13F filing, Burry held put options on 5 million underlying shares of PLTR, with a disclosed value of $9.121 billion—accounting for roughly 66% of the disclosed portfolio. This figure was initially interpreted by the market as “$900 million short position on Palantir.” However, there is a critical nuance: the $9.121 billion disclosed in the 13F filing represents the notional value of the underlying shares, not the actual premium paid by Burry. Burry later clarified that the actual premium paid was approximately $9.2 million, corresponding to about 50,000 put options with a $50 strike price expiring in 2027. In this structure, his maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, while potential returns depend on the stock price falling significantly below the strike price. In April this year, Burry confirmed on Substack that he still holds long-term put options on Palantir, including $50 puts expiring in June 2027 and $100 puts expiring in December 2026. His rationale at the time was straightforward: Palantir’s intrinsic value is far below $50 per share. The problem is that last night’s market temporarily sided with the opposite view. Palantir’s results were exceptionally strong: U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year, and U.S. government revenue rose 90%. The market’s prior concern—that AI model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic might disrupt software layers—was not substantiated in this earnings report. CEO Alex Karp also refocused the narrative on “AI sovereignty,” emphasizing that enterprise and government clients need control over their data, models, and workflows—and Palantir sits precisely at this gateway. Yet this also explains why Burry’s bearish thesis has not been entirely invalidated by this strong rally. Palantir’s current risk does not lie in weak short-term performance, but rather in the market’s extremely high tolerance for valuation. As long as growth continues to explode, the valuation can remain elevated; but if U.S. commercial growth slows, overseas expansion falters, or enterprise AI budgets shift toward cheaper models or cloud provider solutions, valuation compression could occur far more rapidly than profit downgrades. (Source: BlockBeats)