Over Half of BTC Supply in Profit, Market May Enter Final Bear Phase

ChainCatcher reports that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X that the current percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) supply in profit is approximately 52%, meaning nearly half of all Bitcoin holdings are still at a loss, suggesting the market is approaching a critical turning point in the bear cycle. The analysis notes that historically, during each bear market, the percentage of profitable Bitcoin supply eventually falls below 50%, entering a phase where loss-making positions dominate—typically signaling further release of market pressure and serving as a key indicator of the later stages of a bear market. Data shows that in June and July of this year, the profitable supply ratio briefly dipped below 50%, but has since remained near this critical threshold. Analysts believe this indicates the current bear cycle has entered a deeper phase. The analysis suggests that regardless of where the final market bottom may lie, the Bitcoin market may now be entering the final stage of the bear cycle. However, the profitable supply ratio alone reflects only the on-chain cost basis structure and cannot independently determine the market bottom; further confirmation requires combining this metric with indicators such as capital flows, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment.