OpenAI caps Microsoft's revenue share at $38 billion, saving $97 billion in the long term.

According to monitoring by Beating, OpenAI announced two weeks ago that it had revised its partnership agreement with Microsoft. The Information exclusively revealed hidden financial details: the total royalty payment cap owed by OpenAI to Microsoft has been locked at $38 billion. At current revenue growth rates, OpenAI is projected to reach this cap by 2028. Compared to the previous unlimited “20% revenue share” arrangement, the new agreement saves OpenAI approximately $97 billion over the long term. The trade-off for long-term savings is short-term cash flow pressure: the new agreement eliminates OpenAI’s former privilege to defer a portion of its royalties until 2032. Based on projected 2024 revenue of $30 billion, OpenAI must now pay Microsoft a full $6 billion this year—up from the previously expected $4 billion. As a result, OpenAI’s projected cash burn for this year and next has been raised to approximately $27 billion and $63 billion, respectively. Microsoft has relinquished hundreds of billions in potential future revenue in exchange for certainty in distancing itself from “AGI risk.” Under the original agreement, Microsoft’s commercialization rights would have been terminated if OpenAI ever announced the achievement of AGI. The new agreement explicitly guarantees that Microsoft will continue receiving proportional royalties until 2030, regardless of when AGI is achieved, and retains the right to resell OpenAI’s technology until 2032.