OPEC+ to Keep Oil Output Target Unchanged at Sunday Meeting; Iran Demands Implementation Under War Conditions

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1. The Supreme Leader of Iran emphasized implementing Iran's conditions to promote an end to the war.

2. Reports indicate that OPEC+ plans to maintain its oil production targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting.

3. Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusts the trading limit for the live hog futures contract LH2701 and adjusts the margin requirements for the live hog futures contracts LH2703 and LH2705.

4. A local steel mill in Jieyang has initiated blast furnace maintenance, halting all production; the maintenance period is approximately 20 days, expected to affect monthly output by 60,000 tons.

5. Malaysia's palm oil inventories continue to rise, putting pressure on storage capacity in the country's largest palm oil-producing region.

6. As the heating season approaches, all units of Sinopec are implementing solid measures to prepare for natural gas supply, in accordance with the deployment of the Group Party Committee.

7. The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant parties to earnestly implement and enforce this method, to better standardize and guide the signing and performance of medium- and long-term energy supply contracts.

1. According to CCTV News, since October, the normally dry central-northern region of Chile has experienced multiple heavy rains and severe convective weather due to the strong El Niño phenomenon. In the capital, Santiago, streets have flooded and roads have cracked, with rainfall reaching an all-time high on record. Chilean meteorological experts, speaking to CCTV reporters, stated that the peak of this El Niño event has not yet arrived and its impact on Chile may persist until May next year, affecting mining and agricultural production.

2. According to the National Bureau of Statistics: From January to September, industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 6,033.74 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5% year-over-year.

3. The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Major General Rezaei, met with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Khamenei emphasized the need to proactively and promptly release information to sustain public participation in defending the nation and its system; at the same time, he stressed the importance of securing the rights and interests of the Iranian people and the Resistance Front by implementing the conditions proposed by Iranian officials, in order to end the war and the “neither war nor peace” situation.

4. According to sources, Russian President Putin is preparing to hold phone talks with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre to discuss the prospects of a peace agreement for Ukraine.

5. Iranian Navy: Hours ago, a vessel violating regulations shut off its tracking system and attempted to transit a restricted and hazardous area east of the Strait of Hormuz, struck a mine, sustained damage, and caught fire.

6. The weekly change in ADP employment in the United States through October 10 was 16,750, compared to the previous value of 18,500.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher: COMEX gold futures rose 0.86% to $4,073.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.28% to $54.495 per ounce. Diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and easing geopolitical tensions led to a pullback in oil prices from recent highs, reducing inflation concerns; combined with buying interest entering at lower levels following earlier corrections, the market formed a temporary balance ahead of Super Central Bank Week.

2. International oil prices fell across the board, with U.S. crude futures dropping 1.53% to $100.20 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell 0.9% to $109.74 per barrel. Diplomatic efforts in the Middle East progressed, and U.S.-Iran tensions did not worsen further, leading to a temporary easing of concerns over geopolitical supply disruptions. Risk premiums that had surged earlier were unwound, combined with long positions being closed for profit, causing oil prices to pull back from their six-month highs.

3. Most base metals in London rose, with LME aluminum up 1.86% at $3,097.0 per ton, LME copper up 0.94% at $14,462.0 per ton, LME zinc up 0.64% at $3,838.5 per ton, LME lead up 0.60% at $1,934.5 per ton, LME tin up 0.56% at $51,305.0 per ton, and LME nickel down 0.20% at $15,530.0 per ton.

1. According to Mysteel’s research, a local steel mill in Jieyang has initiated blast furnace maintenance and halted all production, with a maintenance period of approximately 20 days, expected to reduce monthly output by 60,000 tons. The mill’s products are primarily distributed to Guangzhou, Jieyang, Quanzhou, and other areas; current inventory levels are limited, and shipments are expected to gradually tighten.

2. According to Mysteel satellite data, from October 19 to October 25, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil amounted to 11.954 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons环比, indicating a slight rebound in port inventories; however, current levels remain within the low range since the beginning of the second half of the year.

3. On October 27, the online auction price for coking coal in the Changzhi Qinyuan market weakened. The starting price for low-sulfur lean coking coal with A≤8, S≤0.5, V≤16, G≥65 was set at RMB 2,300 per ton, but the entire挂牌 volume of 18,000 tons failed to sell, down RMB 64 per ton from the previous auction on the 20th. All prices are ex-factory, cash, and inclusive of tax.

1. U.S. President Trump is set to announce a plan to ease federal requirements aimed at significantly reducing methane emissions from oil and gas extraction, framing it as a measure to boost domestic energy production and lower costs.

2. According to Reuters, three sources said that OPEC+ is likely to maintain its December oil production target when it meets on Sunday, while shifting its focus to negotiations over 2027 production quotas.

3. According to the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange, as the heating season approaches, all units of Sinopec are implementing solid measures to prepare for natural gas supply, in accordance with the directives of the Group Party Committee. From gas fields to pipelines, and from gas storage facilities to LNG terminals, all units are accelerating new well production and ensuring stable output from mature areas, with production targets scheduled and managed backward from key deadlines.

4. Qatar Energy has extended the force majeure status for Edison LNG until December.

5. According to CCTV News, on the 27th, reporters learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that to strengthen the construction of the energy production, supply, storage, and sales system and better leverage the foundational role of medium- and long-term contracts in energy supply assurance, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Interim Measures for the Management of Medium- and Long-Term Contracts for Energy Supply Assurance," which will take effect on December 1. It is understood that the National Development and Reform Commission will, together with relevant parties, earnestly implement these measures to better standardize and guide the signing and performance of medium- and long-term contracts for energy supply assurance, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of all parties involved in supply and demand, and protect public interests, ensuring secure, stable, reliable, and effective energy supply.

6. Tanker data shows that over the four weeks ending October 25, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports slightly decreased to 3.55 million barrels per day, a drop of 300,000 barrels per day from the four weeks ending October 18, marking the lowest level in five weeks.

7. According to U.S. President Trump: I am heading to Corpus Christi, Texas, for an unprecedented rally. Thanks to our highly successful military operation, the United States will receive one million barrels of Venezuelan oil; following that, we will finalize the largest oil agreement in world history.

1. According to SMM, Marubeni Corporation stated on Tuesday that aluminum inventories at Japan's three major ports amounted to 223,200 tons as of the end of September, down 9.5% from 246,600 tons at the end of August.

2. According to SMM, the 700,000-ton production target announced by Chile’s Minister of Mining Mas during the LME week is a quantified declaration of the Castro government’s new policy of “private sector-led” development and a significant upward revision of the 430,000-ton target set during Boric’s term. This increase reflects the new government’s optimistic outlook on Chile’s lithium resource potential.

3. The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Contract" and the "Shanghai Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Business Rules" in accordance with the national standard GB/T 470-2026 for zinc ingots jointly issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Standardization Administration of China, specifically involving optimizations to the zinc futures delivery grade and clarifications regarding zinc ingot storage conditions.

4. According to ICC Xinluo Information data, global lithium battery production in September reached 307.5 GWh, a 41.9% year-over-year increase. Global battery production from January to September totaled 2,377.49 GWh. Global energy storage battery production in September was 115.2 GWh, up 90.3% year-over-year. Global energy storage battery production from January to September reached 848.53 GWh.

5. On October 27, CATL stated on its investor interaction platform that the company continues to make steadfast investments in all-solid-state batteries, with technology leading the industry, and is expected to achieve small-scale production by 2027.

6. According to the London Metal Exchange (LME) position report, as of the week ending October 23, 2026, investment funds held a net long position of 25,300 lots in LME copper, a decrease of 8,494 lots from the previous week; a net long position of 120,400 lots in LME aluminum, a decrease of 3,030 lots from the previous week; a net long position of 35,000 lots in LME zinc, a decrease of 1,290 lots from the previous week; a net long position of 993 lots in LME nickel, an increase of 451 lots from the previous week; a net short position of 29,800 lots in LME lead, a decrease of 3,715 lots from the previous week; and a net long position of 1,890 lots in LME tin, an increase of 44 lots from the previous week.

7. Peruvian copper miner Antamina announced a "preventive shutdown" following an incident at one of its facilities in which an employee died.

1. Palm oil breaks down and retreats—has El Niño temporarily stepped back?

Everbright Futures noted that on Tuesday, October 27, the main contract for palm oil weakened significantly, breaking down on increased volume. The decline in oils and fats followed lower import costs. Domestic inventory pressure remains high, with palm oil stocks at elevated levels. In the short term, palm oil is expected to trade range-bound with a weak bias; monitor geopolitical tensions, changes in import costs, and end-user demand in the coming period.

The market had been betting on a potential exemption from Malaysia’s crude palm oil export tax, but with no official implementation forthcoming, the bullish expectations have gradually been disproven, prompting capital to exit en masse. Meanwhile, FOB prices from producing regions have been actively lowered, directly reducing domestic palm oil import costs. Current domestic palm oil inventories remain at high levels, with substantial forward vessel commitments, ensuring continued pressure on future port arrivals. Overall, this price movement reflects a shift from speculative expectations back toward fundamental spot cost dynamics. In the short term, price direction will follow Malaysian export quotes and crude oil volatility; in the medium term, it remains constrained by seasonal production increases in Southeast Asia and domestic inventory accumulation pressures.

The market continues to monitor the impact of El Niño weather on palm oil, but the production decline corresponding to this weather disruption is more likely to materialize around 2027, aligning with long-dated pricing logic and offering limited support to nearby contracts. Currently, near-term supply-demand dynamics—such as high inventories, seasonal production increases, and easing import costs—are dominating the market, causing the forward weather premium to temporarily contract.

2. Price increase expectations disproven! During the seasonal transition, freight rates declined instead of rising, with the Europe line continuing to see premium erosion.

CGB Futures noted that the main contract for the container shipping Europe route, 2611, fell 6.96% to 2,253 points, with a daily reduction of 63 contracts. The MSK opening rate for a 40-foot container is $3,000, down $200 month-over-month. The earlier November price hike expectation has been disproven, causing the futures price to shed the "peak season premium," with valuation continuing to face pressure.

Previously, carriers aggressively announced rate hikes for the first half of November to boost both contract and spot rates. However, the actual implementation fell far short of expectations: Maersk’s booking rate for Week 45 was only $3,200 per FEU, a $100 decrease from the previous week and significantly below the announced target of $4,000; the latest booking rate for Week 46 dropped further to $3,000 per FEU, another $200 decline week-over-week, clearly indicating carriers’ intent to trade lower rates for volume amid insufficient cargo demand.

The core driver of the resumption is the expectation of capacity release on the right side of the supply curve, representing a classic forward-looking catalyst. Since July 2026, the resumption process has accelerated significantly, with Evergreen and Yang Ming announcing the restart of Red Sea routes in November after a three-year hiatus. The PA Alliance and the Twin Star Alliance have sequentially disclosed rerouting plans and the first vessels to implement them, while CMA CGM, MSC, and Maersk have also resumed partial transit through the Suez Canal.

On the near-term front, Maersk’s opening rates have declined week by week, undermining the price increase expectations from early November; the premium previously priced into nearby contracts has been disproven, causing valuations to naturally revert toward the spot price center, with basis convergence remaining the primary short-term dynamic.