OPEC+ May Maintain Oil Output Policy in Upcoming Meeting

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Thursday, September 3, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

Female Mandarin versionDownload MP3

1. President Xi Jinping of China stated that China is willing to work with regional countries to safeguard the security of international shipping lanes.

2. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the People's Bank of China will continue to advance the transformation of its monetary policy framework and improve the interest rate system.

3. U.S. August ADP employment increased by 38,000, the smallest gain since January, below the market expectation of 48,000.

4. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities amounted to 9.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous month.

5. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: We must unrelentingly prioritize grain production and comprehensively and rigorously promote large-scale yield improvements.

6. A senior official from Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy stated on Wednesday that Indonesia will maintain the B50 policy next year, requiring companies to clear their B40 inventories and transition to B50 by the end of September.

7. Officials from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said on Wednesday that Indonesia’s palm oil production is expected to decline by 2.9% in 2027 to 56.8 million tons.

8. According to three informed sources, OPEC+ may maintain its October oil production policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting.

9. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed that the system for preparing the Work and Budget Plan (RKAB) for the minerals and coal industry in 2027 will not change.

1. According to Xinhua, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that China is willing to work with regional countries to safeguard the security of international shipping lanes, promote development cooperation, foster the integration of regional countries' interests, and gradually build mutual trust and eliminate the roots of conflict.

2. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the People's Bank of China will continue to advance the transformation of its monetary policy framework, improve the interest rate system, and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and smooth operation of financial markets in China.

3. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced that the recent cold-hearted actions of the U.S. military will not weaken our control over the Strait of Hormuz. We have prepared punitive measures against shipping companies that disregard legal routes, fall into America’s traps, and hand over their vessels to the enemy; these measures will be implemented shortly.

4. The Baltic Dry Index rose 174 points, or 5.5%, to 3,331, the highest level since December 2023.

5. In the U.S., ADP employment increased by 38,000 in August, the smallest gain since January and below the market expectation of 48,000.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.86% to $4,434.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising 0.86% to $65.93 per ounce.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract closed up 0.45% at $90.63 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract rose 0.77% to $95.38 per barrel.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME nickel rose 1.38% to $16,895.0 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.41% to $3,294.5 per ton, LME copper fell 0.27% to $14,236.5 per ton, LME tin fell 0.93% to $54,125.0 per ton, LME lead fell 1.07% to $1,898.5 per ton, and LME zinc fell 1.17% to $3,877.5 per ton.

4. As of the close at 23:00 on September 2, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed movements. Coke and coal coke fell over 2%, while caustic soda, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped more than 1%. On the upside, ethylene glycol (EG) rose over 3%, methanol climbed nearly 3%, and styrene (EB) and benzene increased more than 2%.

1. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities amounted to 9.71 million tons, flat compared to the previous month; an increase of 2.5 million tons since the beginning of the year, up 34.7%; and an increase of 880,000 tons compared to the same period last year, up 10.0%.

2. According to FindSteel data, for the week ending September 2, the national construction material output was 4.3757 million tons, an increase of 114,800 tons from the previous week; factory inventory stood at 4.8505 million tons, up 37,800 tons from the previous week; social inventory was 6.2003 million tons, down 99,500 tons from the previous week; total inventory reached 11.0508 million tons, down 61,700 tons from the previous week; apparent demand was 4.4374 million tons, down 174,800 tons from the previous week.

1. According to three informed sources, OPEC+ may maintain its October oil production policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting. The oil-producing group will complete the first phase of easing production cuts this month and shift its focus to quota negotiations for 2027.

2. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that oil demand is recovering, and there is currently no discussion regarding OPEC+ production cuts, as shortages exist in the market; OPEC+ ministers will discuss market conditions and compliance with the agreement at their meeting on Sunday.

3. According to EIA data, for the week ending August 28, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 4.45 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 1.04% decline; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 3.122 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels, a 1.08% decline.

4. According to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) in the UAE, total refined product inventories at the Fujairah port as of the week ending August 31 amounted to 6.412 million barrels, an increase of 53,000 barrels from the previous week.

5. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 2, 2026, the total port inventory of methanol in China stood at 641,500 metric tons, a decrease of 44,100 metric tons from the previous period. Inventory declined by 16,500 metric tons in the East China region and by 27,600 metric tons in the South China region.

1. According to SMM, the silicone industry conference confirmed that the production cut of 50% in September will be on par with August; major monomer manufacturers will again raise prices by RMB 200 per ton on September 7.

2. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has confirmed that the system for preparing the 2027 Work and Budget Plan (RKAB) for the minerals and coal industry will remain unchanged, with the government continuing to maintain the annual reporting mechanism rather than reverting to a three-year program.

3. According to the London Metal Exchange (LME) position report, as of the week ending August 28, 2026, investment funds held a net long position of 48,300 contracts in LME copper, a decrease of 365 contracts from the previous week; the net long position in LME aluminum was 148,900 contracts, an increase of 6,510 contracts from the previous week.

4. On September 2, Industrial Bank Tin announced that Yiman Mining recently received a notice from the West Ujimqin Emergency Management Bureau approving the resumption of operations for the mineral processing tailings system; Yiman Mining’s concentrator will resume production on September 3.

5. According to ICC Xinluo Information data, domestic battery sample enterprises produced 216.65 GWh in September, a 6.15% increase month-over-month.

6. According to SMM, current water scarcity in IMIP primarily affects carbon steel production, while nickel production has not yet been impacted. If the ongoing drought and water scarcity persist and industrial water supply pressures intensify further, nickel production also faces a risk of reduction.

7. Due to drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon, Indonesia’s largest nickel industrial park, the Morowali Industrial Park, may significantly reduce production due to restricted water supply for its smelters. Dedy Kurniawan, the park’s media relations representative, stated in a statement that if new water sources cannot be found, the park may be forced to cut production by 30% to 40%.

8. According to Mysteel, on September 2, 2026, Albemarle bid on 15,840 dry metric tons of Wodgina spodumene concentrate, with a成交 price of $2,307 per dry metric ton CIF, equivalent to SC6, destined for Zhenjiang Port.

9. According to SMM, a mine operator in northern China reduced production due to certain reasons, resulting in a monthly decline of approximately 2,000 metric tons of zinc concentrate output in August, with zinc concentrate production expected to remain low in September.

10. Two sources involved in the quarterly pricing negotiations said on Wednesday that a global aluminum producer has offered a premium of $325 per ton for primary aluminum for the October–December quarter, an 18% decline from the current quarter.

After a concentrated release of short-term market bearish sentiment, precious metals may see a slight oversold rebound correction!

According to Huawen Futures research report, this deep correction in silver is the result of multiple negative factors converging: the Fed's hawkish stance, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran driving inflation higher, and a global sell-off in bonds, with financial attributes becoming the dominant theme. After a concentrated release of short-term bearish sentiment, the market may see a modest oversold rebound, but the overall weak trend is unlikely to reverse quickly. Key future focus areas include subsequent remarks by officials following the Jackson Hole symposium, the evolution of U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, movements in U.S. Treasury yields, and changes in U.S. inflation data. In the short term, silver is likely to remain in a weak, range-bound pattern with resistance to rallies.

2. After hitting the daily price limit and then reopening, is the battle between longs and shorts in ethylene glycol intensifying?

China Everbright Futures' research report points out that the escalation of U.S.-Iran attacks has reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to a standstill. On Wednesday, the EG2610 contract opened at the daily price limit, then quickly opened lower; after a rapid surge driven by market sentiment, intense long-short positioning intensified, leading to significant price volatility. Currently, ethylene glycol inventories at East China ports are at historically low levels, making prices highly sensitive to supply disruptions. This week, ethylene glycol prices have risen over 10% cumulatively. Given the ongoing uncertainty in the U.S.-Iran situation, exercise caution.

1. On September 3 at 22:00, the U.S. released the August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

2. TBA on September 4: FAO publishes the global food price index for August.

3. On September 4 at 20:30, the U.S. released the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment and unemployment rate for August.