OPEC+ Maintains November Oil Output Quotas Amid Global Market Updates

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OPEC+ confirmed no changes to November oil output quotas in Sunday’s meeting, maintaining levels unchanged for the second consecutive month. Global crypto policy remains a key focus as energy markets adjust. The G7 nations plan to release 100 million barrels of oil reserves over four months, while Russia reviews diesel export regulations. Crypto updates reflect ongoing market sensitivity to energy and geopolitical developments.

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Hot Topics Guide

Last month, non-farm payroll employment increased by 29,000, below the economists' consensus forecast in the institutional survey.

2. Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Kalibaf, stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met.

3. According to Mysteel’s full-sample survey of independent coke producers: capacity utilization rate is 71.23%, up 1.07%; daily coke output is 611,700 tons, up 9,200 tons.

4. StoneX raised its forecast for U.S. soybean yield in 2026 to 54.1 bushels per acre.

5. According to SPPOMA data, palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1-30, 2026, increased by 18.71% month-over-month.

6. The statement revealed that OPEC+ decided at its Sunday meeting to maintain its oil production quota unchanged from November.

7. CME Group announced the suspension of the launch of its 10-barrel crude oil futures contract, originally intended to support 24-hour round-the-clock trading.

8. G7 Leaders' Statement: We reaffirm our commitment to not impose export restrictions on energy and energy products among the G7 nations.

9. French President Macron stated that the G7 has decided to release diesel and crude oil reserves, with up to 100 million barrels to be released over four months.

10. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will consider partially lifting diesel export restrictions in the event of production surplus.

11. According to a document released by the Malaysian Ministry of Finance on October 2, Malaysia will eliminate the 10% import duty on certain gold products effective November 1.

Macro News

1. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payroll employment increased by 29,000 last month, following downward revisions to the data for the previous two months. This figure was below the estimates of economists surveyed by institutions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, partly reflecting an expansion in the labor force.

2. According to Iran’s Noor News: Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Kalibaf, stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Iran’s conditions are met, and the United States can no longer “buy time.”

3. On the 4th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is willing to promote dialogue between the Houthi armed group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia to resolve the conflict.

4. Houthi militants: Launched ballistic missiles and drones to attack Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Qurayyat, triggering fires.

5. According to Western and regional officials, Saudi Arabia plans to launch an offensive against the Houthi militants to break their blockade of the Red Sea shipping lanes.

Global futures market volatility

1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 0.72% to $4,172.10 per ounce, down 3.45% for the week, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.76% to $60.71 per ounce, down 6.31% for the week.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed down 1.73% at $91.26 per barrel, down 1.24% for the week; the main contract for Brent crude rose 0.29% to $102.61 per barrel, up 5.31% for the week.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME copper rose 0.16% to $14,266.5/ton, down 2.43% for the week; LME lead fell 0.19% to $1,853.5/ton, down 3.91% for the week; LME zinc fell 0.60% to $3,701.5/ton, down 5.08% for the week; LME tin fell 0.65% to $53,980.0/ton, down 0.68% for the week; LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,530.0/ton, down 4.89% for the week; LME aluminum fell 0.78% to $3,098.5/ton, down 5.19% for the week.

Black Sector Hot News

1. According to Mysteel’s full-sample survey of independent coke producers: capacity utilization rate is 71.23%, up 1.07%; daily coke output is 611,700 tons, up 9,200 tons; coke inventory is 721,400 tons, up 40,400 tons; total coking coal inventory is 10,162,300 tons, up 86,700 tons; coking coal available days are 12.5 days, down 0.08 days.

2. According to Mysteel’s survey of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide: production capacity utilization rate is 70.91%, up 1.17%; daily coke output is 490,200 tons, up 8,100 tons; coke inventory is 386,400 tons, up 26,400 tons; total coking coal inventory is 8,534,700 tons, up 76,700 tons; coking coal available days are 13.1 days, down 0.1 day.

Agricultural Products Hot News

1. StoneX raised its U.S. 2026 yield forecast to 54.1 bushels per acre, up from 53.0 bushels per acre in its September 8 report. U.S. soybean production is now forecast at 4.648 billion bushels, above the previous estimate of 4.547 billion bushels.

2. According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA), from September 1-30, 2026, Malaysia’s palm oil yield increased by 16.76% month-over-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.37% month-over-month, and production increased by 18.71% month-over-month.

3. Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture reported that sugar production in the central-southern region during the first half of September fell 41.6% year-over-year to 2.12 million tons, as rainfall during the period hindered sugarcane crushing.

4. The latest LSEG report has lowered the forecast for Canada’s canola production in the 2026/27 season by 0.9% to 22.4 million metric tons, reflecting lower yield prospects in Manitoba and Alberta.

5. Brokerage and advisory firm StoneX has revised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean production to 183.36 million metric tons, slightly lower than the 183.50 million metric tons predicted in September. The forecast for Brazil’s first-quarter corn production in 2026/27 remains unchanged at 29.3 million metric tons.

6. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, an increase of 2.0 points from the revised figure for August. The latest forecast for global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 marketing year has been raised by 2.8 million tons to 950 million tons, remaining essentially unchanged from the beginning of the season.

7. For the week ending October 2, the breeding profit for self-raised pigs was a loss of RMB 251.9 per head, compared to a loss of RMB 205.7 per head in the previous week; the breeding profit for purchased piglets was a loss of RMB 174.6 per head, compared to a loss of RMB 118.0 per head in the previous week.

8. According to data released by the cargo inspection agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in September 2026 amounted to 955,298 tons, an increase of 2.62% compared to 930,946 tons in the same period last month.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Reuters, during a phone call on Friday, governments of EU countries discussed a proposal by France for European nations to release 50 million barrels of diesel stockpiles, while IEA member countries release 50 million barrels of crude oil. The countries discussed that any agreement to further release diesel stockpiles should include a U.S. commitment to avoid unilaterally imposing a diesel export ban.

2. According to Jinlianchuang, methanol production in September increased slightly month-over-month, estimated at approximately 7.384 million metric tons. In October, domestic methanol plant utilization rates are expected to rise, leading to increased production. Methanol imports in September are estimated at 430,000 to 450,000 metric tons, a decrease of about 380,000 metric tons compared to August; October imports are projected to reach around 470,000 metric tons, subject to official customs data.

3. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) expects global natural rubber demand to increase by 0.4% to 15.356 million tons in 2026, compared to 15.301 million tons in 2025; global natural rubber production is projected to rise by 0.6% to 15.039 million tons, up from 14.952 million tons in 2025.

4. According to Interfax: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss the oil market situation and forecasts for 2026–2027 in Riyadh on October 12.

5. The statement revealed that OPEC+ decided at its Sunday meeting to maintain its oil production quota unchanged from November. This decision means that the relevant production levels will remain unchanged for a second consecutive month.

6. On the evening of the 3rd local time, the Houthi armed group in Yemen issued a statement saying that in response to Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa and other regions of Yemen, the Houthis launched multiple ballistic missiles and drones targeting Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.

7. The General Manager of the Iraqi Oil Tanker Company stated in a statement that 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil have been transported through the Strait of Hormuz via a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC).

8. U.S. President Trump stated that he has requested Europe to release more diesel supply to help alleviate fuel price pressures and said the U.S. will not impose a diesel export ban.

9. CME Group announced the suspension of the launch of its 10-barrel crude oil futures contract, originally intended to support 24-hour round-the-clock trading.

10. G7 Leaders’ Statement: We reaffirm our commitment to not impose export restrictions on energy and energy products among the G7 nations. We call on all producing countries to avoid implementing bans that could exacerbate market tensions.

11. French President Macron stated that the G7 has decided to release oil inventories, with up to 100 million barrels to be released over four months, including a significant release of diesel reserves during the initial 20 days.

12. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will consider partially lifting diesel export restrictions if there is an oversupply in production. He also noted that the domestic diesel market in Russia is currently in balance.

13. Saudi Arabia set the November official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude sold to Asia at a $5 discount to the Oman/Dubai average, a $3 reduction from the previous month.

Metal Hot News

Goldman Sachs has listed CATL and Zhenli New Energy as key targets in China’s battery industry, noting that as demand for electric vehicles and energy storage continues to grow, market share will further consolidate among companies with scale, technological, and cost advantages. CATL remains the top industry pick.

2. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated that, according to statistics from the World Automobile Organization, global automobile sales totaled 63.43 million units from January to August 2026.

3. According to a document issued by Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance on October 2, Malaysia will eliminate the 10% import duty on certain gold products effective November 1.

This week's key futures data and events overview

1. At 4:00 on October 6, the U.S. USDA released its weekly crop progress and harvest report;

2. On October 7 at 0:00, the U.S. EIA released the October Short-Term Energy Outlook report;

3. On October 7 at 22:30, the U.S. EIA released its weekly crude oil and refined products inventory report;

4. On October 8 at 2:00, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting;

5. On October 8, domestic commodity futures exchanges resumed trading after the National Day holiday;

6. On October 8 at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor released the weekly initial jobless claims data;

7. On October 8 at 20:30, the U.S. USDA released the weekly agricultural exports sales report;

8. On October 10 at 0:00, the U.S. USDA released the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

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