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Hello everyone, I'm Leonie Kidd, bringing you today's Morning Squawk.
The market is poised to turn a new page in November, with futures rising after a challenging October.
This week will bring a series of market events, including additional earnings reports from the "Magnificent Seven," the U.S. midterm elections, and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data release.
Buckle up—it’s going to be another busy week.
Current focus: Oil reality
Oil prices are the core driver of market fluctuations, with both Brent and WTI crude oil falling over 4% in early trading.
Amid this decline, negotiators have renewed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with Iran. According to Reuters, a draft proposal is circulating following new talks held in Doha on Sunday.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters this weekend that President Trump prefers to resolve the conflict through "diplomacy," adding, "If we need to take military action, we have the capability to do so, and we possess everything necessary for success. But we prefer a peaceful resolution."
- Analysis: Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude oil price forecast to $105 per barrel and its WTI crude oil forecast to $94 per barrel, citing "high disruption risk." The investment bank incorporated a buffer of 1 million barrels per day in global supply disruptions through 2027.
- Yergin’s view: Dan Yergin of S&P Global, in an interview with Dan Murphy of CNBC in Abu Dhabi, said, “We will not return to the ‘old normal’; this will be a new normal.” He also added that a war with Iran remains an “open-ended turning point” in history.
Significant volatility: Chip stocks rise
Futures rose, as markets appear poised to enter November on a positive note following the Nasdaq 100's worst month in a year.
Chip stocks fueled the rally, with strong momentum coming from Asian markets. SK Hynix and Samsung shares rose sharply in after-hours trading.
- Unexpectedly, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman made a surprise visit to South Korea, meeting with around 50 Samsung executives. He is also reported to have met with SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won to explore partnerships in chip development in the country.
Today's earnings report: Can Apple reignite morale?
Apple aims to restore luster to the "Magnificent Seven" following last week's weak performance among tech stocks. So far, Apple remains the best-performing stock in the group—up 28% year-to-date—but market expectations are extremely high.
- Analysis: CNBC commentator Jeff Kauflin wrote that Apple’s services business could be “a catalyst that continues to drive it forward.”
- Inverse trade: The correlation between Apple and the Nasdaq 100 Index has turned negative for the first time, and the stock is now regarded as an "anti-AI trade."
- Valuation: Click to watch why Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson believes Apple’s valuation appears high.
CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos will report live from Cupertino, where CEO John Ternus will make his debut on the earnings call.
Economics of elections
One day away from the election, here are the latest headlines:
- Alaska Republican Senator Dan Sullivan said on Sunday that he would accept the results of Tuesday’s midterm election, while criticizing Democratic candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign for allegedly recruiting Dan J. Sullivan as a “spoiler” candidate.
- Michigan Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens unexpectedly supported Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers on Sunday, rather than Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated her in the primary.
CNBC's coverage will continue throughout the day, focusing on the economy.
- Eamon Javers will explore why high inflation does not always mean total electoral defeat.
- Megan Cassella will analyze what a divided Washington could mean for policies on healthcare, tariffs, and defense.
- Pippa Stevens will focus on utility stocks and why gubernatorial elections may have greater impact.
Finally...
A temporary Super PAC has invested $637 million in the 2026 midterm elections.
A super PAC named Our Heritage Matters registered with the Federal Election Commission on October 15.
Five days later, the organization began spending money to support third-party candidates and attack Republicans. According to an analysis of Federal Election Commission filings by CNBC, by October 29, the organization had spent approximately $1.2 million in 10 House and Senate races.
However, voters still cannot see where the funds are coming from.
CNBC’s Jenny Lee, Dan Murphy, Jeff Kilburg, Fred Imbert, Luke Fountain, Dan Mangan, and Garrett Downs contributed to this report.
Jack Sommers edited this issue.