Odaily Weekly Editor's Picks (07/18–07/24): Macro Trends, Crypto Insights, and AI Developments

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analytical articles are easily drowned out by trending topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column pulls out these valuable, insightful pieces from the flood of news, helping you filter out the noise and focus on meaningful perspectives and inspiration.

Macroeconomic situation

Since 2007, the U.S. Treasury market is sounding the alarm.

Amid the combined impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices surpassing the $100 mark, and renewed inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multi-year highs, with the 30-year yield setting a record for the longest continuous period at elevated levels since 2007, causing a sharp shift in market expectations regarding the Fed’s policy path.

The interest rate market is front-running other investors' expectations on policy and questioning whether a "hawkish hold" is sufficient to express dissatisfaction.

In the second half of 2026, commodities enter the era of "high-frequency black swans"

Citi's research-covered tail risk scenarios include: the U.S.-Iran conflict evolving from a temporary shock into a prolonged, multi-year disruption; a scramble for hoarding critical minerals; gold first dropping 15% to 20% before doubling; extreme El Niño weather disrupting agricultural markets; and AI bubble bursts or sustained boom triggering bidirectional volatility. The magnitude of these price shocks is sufficient to render traditional supply-and-demand analytical frameworks ineffective.

How did this round of deleveraging in the Korean stock market occur?

Before June 23, the market had all the conditions necessary for a panic sell-off: two-times leveraged products on individual stocks further concentrated capital in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; the two stocks had approached "half of the KOSPI"; and regulators' statement on June 22 became a turning point in confidence.

Reviewing the deleveraging process, it went through the following phases: Phase One: June 23 — Prices collapsed first, but debt did not decrease; Phase Two: June 24–25 — Forced liquidations and re-leveraging occurred simultaneously; Phase Three: June 26–30 — Foreign capital withdrew while retail investors stepped in, shifting risk toward household sectors; Phase Four: July 1–3 — Global semiconductor trading reversed, and ETFs began systematically selling low and buying high; Phase Five: July 6–8 — “Good news no longer drove prices up”; the market shifted from technical adjustment to concerns over profit sustainability; Phase Six: July 9–10 — Forced liquidation data rose significantly, and leverage risk spread to the U.S. and Hong Kong; Phase Seven: July 13–15 — Multiple selling pressures occurred simultaneously, followed by mechanical rebounds; Phase Eight: July 16 — Regulatory pressure, interest rates, and semiconductor trends converged simultaneously, marking the institutionalization of deleveraging.

In summary, it is a negative feedback loop caused by the叠加 of foreign capital rebalancing, retail investor margin buying at the bottom, daily rebalancing of single-stock leveraged ETFs, forced liquidations, reversed industry expectations, shifts in regulatory policy, and monetary tightening—essentially not a liquidity crunch or a major fundamental issue.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Where will the next bull market take place? The answer lies in these two types of assets.

The next crypto bull market will center on the convergence of on-chain finance and traditional finance. The key themes of the future market will revolve around stablecoins, asset tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and the growth of institutional-grade decentralized finance (DeFi) to trillions of dollars in value.

Two key players driving industry convergence in distinct directions: Hyperliquid (token HYPE) and Robinhood (stock symbol HOOD).

The BTC major bear who perfectly timed the top has closed their short position and gone long at 64,000.

Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic; retail investors are collectively waiting for a "four-year cycle low" between $40,000 and $50,000, while some choose to act early, believing the bottom will arrive sooner.

Bitcoin is undergoing a structural transformation—tokenization pilots (involving BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and others), the advancement of the CLARITY Act, and accelerating institutional capital inflows—are undermining the conditions for a deeper collapse;

The crypto bear market has lasted nine months, while the stock market has just peaked, and crash capital may flow into the undervalued crypto market.

SpaceX faces historic stock unlock: $116 billion in shares enter circulation on August 6

The uniqueness of this lock-up expiration lies in SpaceX’s decision not to follow the conventional practice of unlocking all shares 180 days after the IPO; instead, it implemented a phased release schedule aimed at expanding the float while minimizing abrupt disruptions to market supply and demand.

Early investors face lucrative exit opportunities. Short sellers are pressing in, dampening sentiment in the IPO market.

AI

Kimi K3 has not been open-sourced, and overseas audiences are beginning to reassess Chinese AI.

After the release of Kimi K3, overseas discussions shifted from model capabilities to Yang Zhilin's return to China to start a business and America's appeal to talent. Vinod Khosla pointed to U.S. immigration policy, while Russ Salakhutdinov noted that Yang Zhilin had opportunities to stay in the U.S. but chose to return to China to start a business.

The value of Kimi K3 lies not in proving that Chinese AI has fully surpassed others, nor in demonstrating that the U.S. has lost the talent war. It brings to light a more realistic issue: open models, entrepreneurial ecosystems, and talent choices are reshaping the global benchmark for AI pricing.

TSMC is expanding production in the U.S. by $265 billion; AI valuations are increasingly focused on cash flow.

TSMC's second-quarter results and full-year guidance reinforce demand for AI chips, with the full-year capital budget raised to $60 billion to $64 billion.

Market分歧 focuses on U.S. manufacturing costs, 2-nanometer ramp-up, and long-term capital returns; strong demand does not equate to pressure-free profit margins.

Will developing CXL in-house undermine their own DRAM business? Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all abandon in-house CXL controller development

Aggressively promoting proprietary chips may cannibalize its most important revenue source—the general-purpose DRAM module market. The division of labor within the CXL ecosystem is being reshaped, with memory manufacturers focusing on manufacturing, while design leadership shifts toward independent chip design companies. For capital markets, this not only benefits related chip design firms but also means that the three major memory manufacturers will not engage in new competition around complete CXL solutions in the short term, as their core profit model will continue to revolve around traditional DIMM memory products.

Prediction markets

HIP-4 enables permissionless deployment—can Hyperliquid kill Polymarket?

HIP-4 will support permissionless deployment, just like HIP-3, with a staking requirement of 500,000 HYPE for deployers, which will be locked for six months. HIP-4 deployers will be able to set up to a 50% fee share on deployed markets; this feature will first be available on the testnet before launching on mainnet.

Allowing users to independently create prediction market events somewhat mirrors the success of their own HIP-3, but the high staking threshold for HIP-4 deployers may significantly reduce third-party competitors, and the timing has missed the World Cup.

Policies and Stablecoins

The White House concessions remove ethical barriers—will the Clarity Act make it through before the recess deadline?

The Trump administration has agreed to include an ethics provision in the "Clarity Act" (Digital Asset Market Structure Act), and the relevant text has now been submitted to select Republican senators. This development may clear the way for updates to the bill text (expected to be announced in the coming days) and subsequent Senate voting.

Meanwhile, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Asset Advisory Council responsible for advancing the legislation, has confirmed that he will remain in his role to help see the bill through to its final stages.

But the U.S. Congress typically enters its summer recess in mid-August, leaving only about a dozen working days for both parties to finalize the text and advance it through the Senate.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

New ecosystem

US stocks Meme, the Robinhood chain has finally found its own grand narrative

Meme coins are driving trading on the Robinhood chain, and this could very well be the next big opportunity on the Robinhood chain.

Security

Close call! An outsourced employee nearly compromised MetaMask.

MetaMask was exposed by the media in a security scandal involving the accidental hiring of a North Korean hacker. Internal records show that this hacker was not involved in peripheral projects, but had access to MetaMask’s core wallet code and participated in the development of the wallet’s fiat on-ramp and off-ramp features.

After a North Korean hacker had been working at the company for a month, Consensys’s internal security team detected anomalies. Once Consensys’s investigation confirmed that Tyler Knapp’s true identity was a North Korean hacker, they immediately revoked all his internal access permissions and contacted law enforcement.

This security incident did not result in any loss of user assets or data.

Weekly Hot Topics Recap

Policies and Macroeconomic Markets

Trump: The U.S. federal government is expected to shut down in September;

U.S. SEC agrees to pay $150,000 to settle litigation over the disclosure of Ethereum investigation records and will submit remaining documents;

Trump's crypto interest controversy has dampened prospects for the CLARITY bill passing this year;

South Korea tightens trading requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs: effective July 31, individual investors must have 30 million KRW in cash;

South Korea plans to introduce an AI-based regulatory system for virtual assets, having reported over 30 cryptocurrency-related cases in two years to combat market manipulation;

The South Korean ETF market is seeing a rise in "concentrated" investment trends, with capital accelerating toward leading stocks;

Opinions and Voices

Serenity: SK Hynix ADR trades at a 25% premium over Korean shares; conversion starting July 29 may pressure U.S. stock prices;

Dovey Wan: South Korea may be one of the clearest top indicators for global risk assets;

HSBC: The direct inflationary impact of AI is more likely to appear in South Korea;

Correlation between Korean stocks and the Nasdaq has reached its highest level in nearly two years, becoming a global indicator of AI investment sentiment;

Citibank: Upgrades China to Overweight, Tactically Downgrades South Korea;

Jensen Huang: The chip industry needs to expand another 5 to 10 times; Chinese models benefit everyone;

SemiAnalysis: Kimi K3's KDA mechanism improves attention efficiency but will require more GPU, HBM, DRAM, and network resources;

Hyperliquid Co-founder: The crypto industry struggles to attract top entrepreneurial talent;

Institutions, large companies, and top projects

Intel's Q2 earnings and guidance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by AI demand for the fastest growth in 15 years;

Moonshot AI Kimi is expected to list in Hong Kong within as little as six months;

BlackRock's South Korean ETF has allocated approximately 25% of its position to SK Hynix;

Kalshi has applied to the U.S. CFTC to launch a perpetual futures contract linked to gold;

Polymarket was exposed for approximately $200 million in bets over six months exhibiting characteristics of insider trading;

BitMEX will officially shut down on September 23, 2026;

Movement Labs files for bankruptcy; Movement Industrial and the foundation may become the biggest beneficiaries;

Data

Is the selling pressure on Bitcoin easing? Unrealized losses have dropped 56% from their peak, but demand recovery remains insufficient;

Over 66% of addresses are at a loss; large profits in Polymarket World Cup Champion Market are concentrated among a small number of traders;

Security

The White House’s official teleprompter operator made over $100,000 by trading on insider information...

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