Odaily editors discuss crypto market trends and predictive markets on March 4.

This is an “informal” column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the author shares immediate reflections and alternative perspectives on industry news, data, trending events, and their lesser-known details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still under validation—they may not be direct paths to wealth, but could simply be questions themselves; presents observations gained from conversations with industry professionals; and shares materials that genuinely deepened our understanding, whether from within or outside the team.

The content in this section is based on the real investment experiences and observations of Odaily’s editorial team. We do not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we’re equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources—not to create consensus. Join the Odaily community (Telegram group, X official account) to exchange ideas, ask questions, and have some fun.

Introduction: Primarily focused on prediction markets; have no interest in trading contracts or buying spot assets.

Share: Since the New Year, I’ve barely opened my exchange software, focusing my energy instead on popular projects in the interactive prediction markets space:

Top projects: Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi has outright abandoned non-U.S. users, who cannot complete KYC. Polymarket, while anticipated to have an airdrop, currently lacks a points system or other incentive mechanisms, making it difficult to assess potential returns. Since the vast majority of events on the platform still have zero trading fees, the primary use case remains hedging positions on other platforms.

Although Opinion has been widely criticized and users feel they’ve been rug-pulled, I still believe a successful prediction market project can emerge on BNB Chain. Over the past couple of days, Opinion has been heavily criticized by early users. The airdrop allocation is only 3.5%, with each point worth approximately $6, yet many users’ point acquisition costs ranged from $10 to $15—effectively rug-pulling nearly everyone. Even more outrageous, many top-ranked users who genuinely contributed substantial trading fees were flagged as sybils. This series of actions has severely damaged sentiment within BNB Chain’s prediction market ecosystem, causing a sharp decline in TVL. However, I still believe in and continue interacting with dingaling’s predict.fun, which currently has a TVL of $15 million. According to community updates, major developments are set to begin this week—I’m hopeful this will attract users away from Opinion.

Introduction: Pure beginner～

Share: Three altcoins I’ve been following recently: MORPHO, VVV, and POWER.

MORPHO and VVV have both published articles, and both have experienced fundamental changes. The most significant bullish catalyst for MORPHO is the announcement by Wall Street asset management giant Apollo that it plans to gradually purchase 90 million tokens over the next 48 months, representing genuine buying demand. Technically, MORPHO is currently on the right side of a rounding bottom pattern, indicating a strong trend reversal signal—but the timing of this observation is slightly delayed.

VVV is perfectly positioned to benefit from the "tailwinds" of the AI Agent era: on one hand, the project team is actively reducing supply, while on the other, demand for APIs is exploding, driving the token economy into a healthy cycle. Additionally, a significant point is that there are signs of strong centralized control on the contract; currently, bullish momentum remains robust, and no large-scale long closures have been observed yet—worth continued monitoring.

POWER was completely controlled by a strong manipulator, and this phase is likely over. Tokens under strong manipulator control rise sharply but also fall violently—every profit comes at great risk.

Introduction: Crypto abstract artist, crypto entertainment enthusiast, sharp-tongued critic

Share: 1. Since the start of the year, crypto-related stocks have continued to move in tandem with the broader crypto market—essentially, they’ve all run their course. Aside from Circle, which surged nearly double due to its earnings report, short squeeze, and revenue expectations, and still has room to reach around $110, only a few mining companies that have pivoted to AI have shown modest upward momentum. Everything else has been flat. Simply put, crypto-themed stocks, especially DAT shares, behave like this: when the broader U.S. market rises, I don’t; when the U.S. market falls, I fall too. At the start of the conflict, I dipped slightly; as the war continued, I plunged sharply; when gold fell, I fell too; even when BTC rebounded, I still dropped. The only time I bounced back was when BTC’s rebound briefly lifted BTC treasury holdings—then I resumed falling. In short: cherish your capital—don’t try to catch a falling knife. Stick to short-term speculative plays for rebounds only, and don’t fall for the myth of “value investing” in crypto again.

2. In the prediction market, the Oscars are an upcoming event that will soon be settled; we recommend closely monitoring film critic weekly reports and developments on X. Currently, "Oppenheimer" and "The Killer" appear to have the highest chances of winning;

3. Recommended a relatively simple but fascinating article after AGI: Debate Between the World’s Top AI Fathers: When Will Real AGI Arrive? Which Jobs Will Be First to Disappear?

Introduction: Learn more.

Share: I’ve made very few recent trades. Aside from focusing on yield-generating assets, the only active move I made was bottom-fishing CRCL in mid-February between $52 and $58. The thesis was betting on AI’s need for a stablecoin to solve payment infrastructure—and Circle is currently the only major player with meaningful traction. USDC has a first-mover advantage in this space, much like USDT did in the broader crypto market. In simpler terms: move beyond conservative valuation metrics and pay for the vision. However, developments have surpassed my initial expectations—CRCL rebounded sharply on strong earnings, and I’ve considered taking partial profits.

Another slower activity is harvesting LP subsidies on Polymarket, which essentially involves enriching interaction behavior—less than 30% of addresses have received at least $1 in LP rewards. In practice, it’s still quite manageable; the core strategy is to identify markets with high subsidies and low competition, while also implementing risk controls for cases where your one-sided orders get filled.