American consumers are feeling the squeeze, and the data backs up the vibes. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, published on September 8, paints a picture of households increasingly worried about their jobs, their debts, and their ability to keep up with rising costs.
The most striking number: the mean probability that consumers assign to US unemployment rising over the next year jumped 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%. That’s the highest reading since April 2020, when the economy was still reeling from pandemic-era shutdowns.
The numbers tell a grim story
The SCE survey, an internet-based monthly poll of roughly 1,300 US household heads conducted from August 3 through August 31, serves as one of the Fed’s key gauges of consumer sentiment.
A growing share of households reported that their financial situations had worsened compared to a year ago. At the same time, expectations for future conditions also declined.
On the employment front, the probability of landing a new job after losing a current one fell 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%.
Credit stress is mounting too. The probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months climbed 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%.
Inflation expectations hold steady, but gas fears spike
On the inflation side, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations held at 3.6%, while the three-year-ahead figure eased slightly to 3.2%. The five-year outlook remained anchored at 3.0%.
The real outlier was gasoline. Expected gas price growth surged 1.7 percentage points to 4.6% in August.
Meanwhile, median expected household income growth stayed flat at 3.0%, but spending growth expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.2%.
Why this matters for markets and the Fed
The timing of this survey release is notable. It lands weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee’s next scheduled policy meeting, where officials will be weighing exactly these kinds of consumer sentiment signals alongside harder economic data.
The rising debt payment miss probability at 13.2% is particularly relevant for credit markets. The gap between income growth expectations at 3.0% and spending growth expectations at 5.2% represents a 2.2 percentage point spread, implying consumers expect to fund the difference through savings drawdowns or increased borrowing.