NVIDIA Q2 Earnings Ahead, U.S. PCE Inflation Rises to 3.7%

Huo Xing Finance News: On August 26, here is a summary of key market news ahead of U.S. pre-market trading: 1. NVIDIA will release its second-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday. Its performance is viewed by the market as a critical indicator of overall AI trading sentiment. Wall Street expects NVIDIA’s second-quarter revenue to exceed $92 billion, with third-quarter revenue projected to reach approximately $103.7 billion. This earnings report and future guidance may serve as a major catalyst for the next phase of AI sector performance. 2. The U.S. July PCE price index annual rate stood at 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month, compared to market expectations of a slight decline to 3.6%. The core PCE price index annual rate for July was 3.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the prior reading of 3.30%. Market pricing indicates a slight increase in expectations for a Fed rate hike next month; interest rate futures show that, after the PCE data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to approximately 42%, up from about 36% prior to the data release. 3. A Reuters survey forecasts that the S&P 500 will reach 7,900 by the end of 2026 (up from 7,620 in the May survey). The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to reach 54,500 by the end of 2026 (up from 52,500 in the May survey). 4. With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections now 10 weeks away, Democrats currently lead by approximately 6 percentage points in generic congressional ballot polling. Markets are beginning to assess the potential impact on financial markets if Democrats regain control of Congress. Analysts suggest that if Democrats control Congress, the U.S. could enter a “divided government” scenario, leading to prolonged political gridlock on major legislation. 5. Alibaba Group announced the completion of an $80 billion Hong Kong share placement, issuing 710 million new ordinary shares to non-U.S. persons outside the United States at a placement price of HK$112.70 per share. Alibaba plans to use the net proceeds entirely to strengthen its global AI strategy. 6. MiniMax disclosed at its mid-2026 earnings call that token consumption in July had reached 20 times the level of January, with Q2 revenue increasing by 81.8% quarter-over-quarter from Q1, and August’s ARR further rising to over $800 million. 7. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to increase their supply of NVIDIA’s 8-layer HBM4 memory in the second half of this year. This arrangement is primarily driven by NVIDIA’s supply strategy, aiming to ensure stable supply across all HBM memory types while managing product heat output. It is understood that 8-layer memory is likely to become the flagship product for the next-generation HBM4E. 8. Approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options with a notional value of about $6.44 billion will expire on Friday at 16:00 Beijing time on Deribit, potentially amplifying market volatility. Of these, call options total approximately 44,600 contracts and put options total approximately 37,100 contracts, resulting in a Put/Call ratio of 0.83, indicating an overall bullish bias. The most concentrated strike prices for call options are $75,000 and $80,000, corresponding to open interest notional values of approximately $236 million and $157 million, respectively. 9. Bank of America maintains its “Buy” rating on NVIDIA with a $350 price target. The bank expects NVIDIA’s second-quarter revenue and guidance to exceed market expectations by 3% to 4% due to increased production scaling of Vera Rubin chips; however, it believes the actual numbers are not the most critical focus of this earnings report. Bank of America emphasized that investors should pay closer attention to whether NVIDIA discloses multi-year off-balance-sheet commitments made to secure chip supply, power, AI models, and customer demand.