NVIDIA's latest earnings report once again shook the market, with management forecasting revenue growth of over 70% for fiscal year 2028—far exceeding Wall Street’s consensus expectation of 45%. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, and multiple other institutions have issued bullish outlooks, with some analysts boldly predicting that revenue could reach $1 trillion in fiscal year 2029—not an impossible scenario. The next-generation chip platform, Vera Rubin, is poised for mass production, and accelerating demand coupled with supply constraints suggests current guidance may be overly conservative. NVIDIA has once again stunned the market with an upside earnings report and unveiled a long-term outlook that compels Wall Street to reassess its valuation.
The company previewed on its latest earnings call that revenue growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028 could exceed 70%, significantly surpassing the previous market consensus of approximately 45% according to FactSet. This forward guidance was described by TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter as a “potentially significant catalyst for the stock price,” directly driving NVIDIA’s shares up 8.7% on Thursday—the largest single-day gain since May 2024. At the close of trading, NVIDIA’s market capitalization rose to $5.49 trillion, adding $441.5 billion in a single day—the second-largest single-day market cap increase in company history.
More notably, some analysts have set their sights even further ahead. Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold wrote in a research report that NVIDIA achieving $1 trillion in revenue for the fiscal year ending January 2029 “appears possible,” while the market consensus forecast from FactSet, as of Wednesday, projects revenue of less than $750 billion for that year.
70% growth guidance: Conservative forecast under supply constraints
NVIDIA's management explicitly stated on the earnings call that 70% of the growth forecast has already factored in supply constraints, and actual figures would be higher without supply bottlenecks. JPMorgan also noted that, although the guidance significantly exceeds expectations, it may still be conservative, as the company has clearly characterized the current situation as "supply-constrained," implying that actual demand would be substantially higher if supply were unrestricted.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider believes that if NVIDIA continues to collaborate with tech companies to advance data center development and further bridge the gap between customer demand and supply, the company could exceed its guidance in fiscal year 2028.
Regarding gross margin, NVIDIA expects some compression for the remainder of the current fiscal year but forecasts that next fiscal year’s gross margin will stabilize in the range of 72% to 73%. Simon Leopold believes that, while this level is below recent highs, it is sufficient to alleviate market pessimism, noting that this guidance range is "better than the worst-case scenario" given rising memory chip prices and intensifying competition in custom chips.
Rubin Platform and Ecosystem Moat: Multiple Growth Engines Take Shape
Buchalter interpreted this guidance as a "strong signal of confidence" in NVIDIA's business visibility, amid the beginning of mass shipments of the company's next-generation AI chip platform, Vera Rubin. Vera Rubin is NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform following Blackwell.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said NVIDIA’s July quarter earnings “should remind investors why they hold this stock.” In his research report, he noted that demand is accelerating, a trend coinciding with the Rubin platform becoming NVIDIA’s largest upcoming product cycle in history.
Rasgon also emphasized that NVIDIA’s balance sheet is becoming a moat “as important as its technology.” The company not only locks in customers for products worth hundreds of billions of dollars through equity investments and revenue-sharing agreements, but also has the ability to “support and expand the ecosystem around its products.”
Simon Leopold believes that, in terms of revenue contribution, the Vera Rubin chip is expected to account for approximately 20% of data center revenue in the third fiscal quarter. During the same period, the Groq 3 LPX has reached full production, with large-scale shipments set to begin later this quarter, and the emerging cloud provider Nebius has become one of its first adopters. The production ramp-up rates for both Rubin and LPU have exceeded prior model projections, prompting upward revisions to related estimates.
Simon Leopold further noted that NVIDIA’s progress in the CPU business has also exceeded expectations. The trailing twelve-month revenue for the Grace CPU has surpassed $5 billion, and the next-generation Vera CPU is now in full-scale production. Based on order volumes, NVIDIA’s CPU business has reached an annualized revenue scale of $20 billion, and with ongoing supply improvements, CPU revenue for fiscal year 28 is expected to more than double.
Wall Street remains divided on bullish and bearish views, but bulls have accumulated more positions.
Despite NVIDIA's strong performance boosting bullish confidence, market分歧 has not been fully resolved. Buchalter acknowledged that NVIDIA’s strategy of providing financing support to ecosystem partners is “unlikely to convince short sellers,” but he remains constructive on the sustainability of diversified spending on AI infrastructure and NVIDIA’s role as a “core enabler.”
Overall, Buchalter believes the earnings report "scored more on the bullish side" and explicitly states that NVIDIA's stock is "clearly undervalued." Goldman Sachs' Schneider added that the guidance "may alleviate investor concerns about high capital expenditure costs."
Analysts expect NVIDIA's revenue for this fiscal year to reach $403.5 billion. Whether NVIDIA can convert supply constraints into room for growth between this fiscal year and its $1 trillion target will be a key factor in determining whether this expectation is realized.