Nomura Report Highlights Unitree Robotics' Cost Advantage and Growth Potential

Written by: Rita

The humanoid robotics industry is still struggling in losses, but Unitree Technologies has already achieved profitability.

In its inaugural coverage report released on August 19, Nomura Securities assigned Unitree Robotics a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 370, representing a 145% upside from the current share price of RMB 151. Nomura believes Unitree is the world’s leading manufacturer in terms of humanoid robot shipments, with over 5,500 pure humanoid robots projected to be shipped in 2025—far exceeding competitors—and is one of the few globally profitable embodied AI companies. Its competitive moat lies in its fully in-house developed hardware, which reduces the cost of outsourced components to just 14%–18% of total costs.

However, policy risks in the U.S. market are the biggest uncertainty.

Unitree's core competitiveness lies in its hardware, not its algorithms.

The four core components of the robot joint module—motor, reducer, driver, and encoder—are all independently developed and manufactured by Unitree, even extending to LiDAR systems. Nomura estimates that self-developed components account for 80% to 90% of the cost of core components, with only 14% to 18% sourced externally. This vertical integration directly translates into pricing power: the quadruped robot Go2 is priced below RMB 10,000, and the humanoid robot R1 has an initial launch price of just RMB 29,900.

The financial results driven by cost advantages are exceptional profitability in the industry. Unitree’s core gross profit margin increased from 44% in 2022 to 60% in 2025, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 590 million in 2025 (net profit margin of approximately 35%). During the same period, global humanoid robotics peers generally operated at a loss.

Nomura expects this cost advantage to further strengthen with scale expansion. The total material cost of humanoid robots has already fallen below RMB 100,000, and as the intelligent manufacturing facility funded by the 2027 IPO comes online, increased production capacity will continue to drive down unit costs. Nomura forecasts that Unitree’s revenue will reach RMB 2.69 billion, RMB 5.4 billion, and RMB 13.18 billion in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 58%, 101%, and 144%, primarily driven by sales volume, with limited impact from pricing.

Unitree possesses the most comprehensive product portfolio worldwide.

From quadruped robots to humanoid robots, and including robotic arms, dexterous hands, and LiDAR, Unitree covers the complete technology stack of "mobility + manipulation + interaction." In 2025, Unitree shipped over 5,500 humanoid robots and over 26,000 quadruped robots, ranking first globally in both categories.

The speed of product iteration is another key advantage. Unitree achieved the world’s first full-sized electrically driven humanoid robot backflip (March 2024), surpassed a humanoid robot running speed of 10 meters per second (early 2026), and won four gold medals at the 2025 World Robot Conference. Nomura believes that as the valuation benchmark for embodied intelligence shifts from “limb capabilities” to “brain + cerebellum,” Unitree’s massive capability to collect real-world robotic data will become a barrier that software and model providers cannot replicate.

In June 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense added Unitree to the Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies. Subsequently, on July 28, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission added “foreign-made advanced robotic equipment” to its restricted list, covering all mobile robots not manufactured in the United States. Unitree’s primary models currently on sale have received FCC authorization and may continue to be sold, but new models will be prohibited from entering the U.S. market.

Nomura estimates that U.S. revenue as a percentage of total revenue for Unitree will range from 13% to 19.5% between 2023 and 2025, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 730 million in 2025, accounting for 43.6% of main business revenue. The entity list does not apply retroactively to existing models, but licensing periods may be limited to within 10 years, and new models will be unable to obtain certification. For a company with a product iteration cycle of approximately one year, this means the incremental market potential in the U.S. will gradually shrink.

Nomura believes this risk is structural, not cyclical. A compliance pathway may involve U.S.-based manufacturing, but for Unitree, which is already on the 1260H list, this pathway is nearly impossible.

Nomura values Unitree at a 25x forward P/S multiple for 2027, with a target price of RMB 370. This valuation multiple is significantly higher than the average of around 9x for Chinese robotic component suppliers, but Nomura believes the premium is justified. Unitree’s growth trajectory is steeper, with Nomura forecasting a CAGR of 122% in revenue from 2026 to 2028, far exceeding the approximately 30% growth expectation for Chinese peers in 2027. Unitree achieved profitability in 2025 with a gross margin of 60%, while some peers are still projected to have negative net margins in 2026.

The target price implies a 145% upside potential. Key catalysts include: the commercialization of self-developed world models/VLA models, continued quarterly shipments of humanoid robots exceeding expectations, and the scaling ramp-up of new products such as R1 and H2.

Nomura's listed downside risks include: slowed overseas growth due to FCC restricted lists, slower-than-expected adoption in industrial applications (currently over 70% of humanoid robot revenue comes from research buyers), and increased competition leading to pricing pressure.

Yu Shu’s trajectory is a continuation of China’s manufacturing vertical integration capability in the robotics sector. The moat lies in end-to-end cost control, not in any single technological breakthrough. Nomura’s core assessment is: during the transition of embodied intelligence from the lab to factories and homes, whoever reduces costs to an accessible level first will secure the ticket to scalability first.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report (Nomura Securities, August 19, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage's analysts and represent the position of their respective institution only; they do not reflect the views of Chaoxiang Research nor constitute any investment advice.

The market carries risks; make decisions independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.