Ninth Circuit Rules Against Kalshi, Clears Way for Nevada to Block Prediction Market

The vote was not close. All three judges sided against Kalshi, handing Nevada regulators a clean, unanimous win. For related coverage, see Blockchain Futurist Conference Returns to Toronto for Its Ninth Year.

The appeals court decision clears the way for the state to temporarily block Kalshi, according to reporting on the ruling. The outcome went directly against the company at the center of the case. For related coverage, see Coinbase Files Response to CFTC and SEC on Perpetual Derivatives.

At issue is whether Kalshi’s event contracts fall under Nevada’s gaming rules. The panel’s ruling says the state can move to enforce, at least for now, as covered in coverage of the Ninth Circuit decision. For related coverage, see ETH ETFs Pull In $713M This Week, Closing in on Bitcoin's $884M.

The ruling strengthens Nevada’s hand. It hands practical authority back to state regulators rather than leaving prediction markets shielded from local law.

The state has already signaled it intends to act on that authority, as Nevada moves to block the prediction market following the decision.

Crucially, the fight is framed around gaming law, not general market oversight. Nevada’s argument is that Kalshi’s contracts function like wagering within its jurisdiction, and the court did not stand in the way of that enforcement path. Official statements from the state are posted through the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

For Kalshi, the named company in this case, the decision raises the legal and operational stakes of doing business state by state.

Prediction market platforms now have a fresh reason to weigh state-level risk, not just federal posture. The jurisdictional tug-of-war has been building, and it recently escalated when the CFTC sued three states over prediction market jurisdiction.

The federal regulator has continued to weigh in through its own press releases, underscoring how contested this space has become. Kalshi’s markets have drawn heavy attention this year, including bets on a possible congressional stock-trading ban.

This ruling is tied to Nevada. It does not, on its own, settle the national question of how prediction markets are regulated.

So the real question now: does a state-level loss in the Ninth Circuit become the template other states use to rein in prediction markets, or does the federal fight override it?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.