Next Week’s Macro Outlook: US CPI Data to Test the Fed’s Pause on Rate Hikes

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Next week’s macro focus shifts to the U.S. September CPI data, as markets test the Fed’s pause on rate hikes. On-chain data reveals mixed positioning ahead of the key inflation release. While officials hint at a possible hike this year, October odds stand at 19%, with December fully priced in. Altcoins to watch may react sharply to changes in rate expectations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to push oil prices higher, though a U.S.-Russia diesel deal constrains immediate movements.

BlockBeats report, October 11: Next week, global markets will focus on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether the Fed maintains its "non-consecutive rate hike" stance. Although most officials believe another rate hike this year is possible, recent statements indicate no urgency to act at consecutive meetings. Market pricing for a rate hike on October 28 has fallen to approximately 19%, while a December hike is fully priced in. Geopolitically, the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff and escalating tensions in Yemen continue to support oil risk premiums, while the U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement has limited short-term impact. Key events below:


Tuesday:

Cleveland Fed President Harker delivered a speech;

Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India;

U.S. September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, ADP Employment Change for the week ending September 26, Annualized Total Existing Home Sales for September;

OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.


Wednesday:

U.S. September CPI and Core CPI;

The Federal Reserve has been actively speaking out ahead of the release of the Beige Book on economic conditions;

Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Bowman delivered speeches;

IEA releases its monthly oil market report.


Thursday:

U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 9;

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, October New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices;

G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting.


Friday:
Chair of the Federal Reserve, Powell, attended the IMF Annual Meeting in Bangkok and held a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva;

Cleveland Fed President Harker speaks again;

U.S. September Import Price Index, Industrial Production;

U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 9.

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