Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 22% over the past month, but Nansen believes this recovery is insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market. The firm notes that spot fund flows, ETF subscription and redemption trends, and derivatives positioning remain weak, and the short-term price action still lacks stable buying support.
Spot funding flows remain cautious.
Nansen senior research analyst N token issuance Lai Søndergaard stated that the daily and weekly trends for Bitcoin have improved, suggesting that the weakest phase of the previous downturn may already be behind us. However, recent data does not fully support a confirmation of a bull market.
He noted that Bitcoin is currently below its 7-day moving average, indicating weak short-term momentum. Over the past week, marked entities tracked by Nansen net transferred approximately 3,700 BTC to exchanges. Inflows to exchanges typically suggest potential selling pressure, which has diminished his confidence in the sustainability of this rally.
Previously, Bitcoin recorded its strongest August performance since 2017, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw strong weekly net inflows. However, Nansen believes that earlier buying was insufficient to fully offset subsequent outflows, and sustained spot demand is still needed to confirm that the market has shifted from a rebound to a more durable upward cycle.
Large whale positions are showing divergence
From large account positions, the market has not formed a one-sided consensus. Some whale addresses tracked by Nansen remain slightly bullish, but on Hyperliquid, accounts trading with large notional values still maintain significant short exposure.
Meanwhile, the perpetual contract funding rate remains positive but at a modest level, indicating that longs are still paying fees without reaching excessive overcrowding. Open interest is declining, showing a contraction in overall derivatives exposure; active trading data also suggests that selling pressure in the market continues.
Nansen believes this structure suggests that Bitcoin’s short-term price could rebound due to short covering. If the price rises, some short positions may be forced to close, further pushing the price higher. However, this leverage-driven rally does not automatically indicate that a breakout has been completed.
The institution also provided the key levels below. If Bitcoin falls below $76,400, leveraged long positions may come under pressure, and the local bottom structure could be challenged. Bitcoin recently dropped back toward $76,500, after briefly rising above $81,000.
Return to $80,000 still hinges on ETF demand
Søndergaard stated that for this recovery to be more solid, Bitcoin first needs to reclaim and hold the $77,400 to $77,650 range. If this zone is effectively regained, $80,000 will once again become a key focus for the market.
He believes that stronger spot trading volume and improving ETF fund flows are essential conditions for confirming the market trend. Meanwhile, funding rates need to remain moderate, and open interest should gradually recover, indicating that the market is increasing its risk exposure without exhibiting significant leverage imbalances.
If Bitcoin faces resistance again near $80,000, while exchange net inflows remain high and derivative positions expand once more, but no new spot buying emerges, this rally will become more reliant on leverage, increasing the risk of a subsequent pullback.
The macroeconomic environment continues to exert pressure.
In addition to on-chain and derivatives data, the macroeconomic environment is also one of the reasons Nansen remains cautious. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 4.80%, with oil prices and inflation concerns pushing bond yields higher. Rising real interest rates typically reduce the appeal of yield-free assets.
Nansen also noted that the total supply of stablecoins is approximately $310 billion, with limited recent growth, indicating that there has been no significant inflow of off-chain capital. Meanwhile, market expectations for the Fed’s policy path have tightened again, and interest rate prospects continue to influence the performance of risk assets.
This week, U.S. employment data will be the next key focus. The ADP report showed that the U.S. private sector added 38,000 jobs in August, below market expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth on September 4; these figures could continue to influence the price movements of Bitcoin and broader risk assets.
Another notable signal comes from Strategy. Between August 24 and 30, the company purchased 4,603 BTC, totaling approximately $369.7 million, ending a pause in buying that lasted over two months. While corporate buying continues, Nansen believes that single-company accumulation is not sufficient to replace broader confirmation of spot demand.