Mystery Whale Bets $2.5 Billion on BTC Breaking $70,000 by July 31

Author: Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Compiled by Deep潮 TechFlow

DeepChaohao Summary: An anonymous trader bought 20,000 call options with a strike price of $70,000 and sold 20,000 call options with a strike price of $72,000 on Deribit, totaling a notional value of $2.5 billion, with an expiration date set for July 31—two days after the Fed’s interest rate meeting. With Bitcoin currently trading at $64,289, this implies the trader is betting that Bitcoin will surge 9% within 10 days to break above the $70,000 level. However, with ETF fund flows remaining volatile and on-chain cost bases indicating that $69,000 remains a key support level for buyers, the success of this high-stakes bet hinges on whether demand spikes following the Fed’s decision can overcome these resistance levels.

Deribit’s July 31 options board shows over 20,000 Bitcoin call options contracts concentrated at the $70,000 and $72,000 strike prices.

These two strike prices represent the largest concentrations of call options for this expiration date; according to exchange data as of writing, there are approximately 27,000 contracts at $70,000 and around 21,000 contracts at $72,000. Bitcoin’s current price is near $64,289, meaning the lower strike price is approximately 8.9% above the spot price.

Deribit’s Chief Business Officer, Jean-David Péquignot, told CoinDesk that a large trade involved buying 20,000 call options expiring on July 31 with a strike price of $70,000, while selling an equal number of call options with a strike price of $72,000.

Exchange data concentration independently confirms significant open interest at both strike prices, forming a 20,000 / 20,000 bullish call spread.

Based on this structure and the current Bitcoin price, the total notional value of the two legs is approximately $2.5 billion. The premium paid, capital deployed, and net exposure are different metrics from this figure.

These options will expire two days after the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. The concentration of strike prices, expiration date, and spot spread collectively define Bitcoin’s tactical test in the final days of July.

Under this structure, the 70,000 USD call option provides upside exposure above the lower strike price at expiration, while selling an equal number of 72,000 USD call options reduces costs and caps further gains. The resulting bull call spread reaches its maximum profit if Bitcoin reaches or exceeds the higher strike price at expiration.

This structure can express a directional view, hedge another options position, or hedge a standalone exposure. Neither Deribit’s open interest chart nor reported block trades identify the counterparty’s broader portfolio, so this position is most clearly characterized by its capped upside and short-term expiration.

A review of options positions by CryptoSlate on July 17 found approximately $4.5 billion in call options open interest between $70,000 and $80,000. Open interest calculates the number of outstanding contracts; the directional bias depends on how the call options are bought, sold, and integrated with the rest of the portfolio. This concentration highlights price levels rather than turning each contract into an identical bullish bet.

An independent prediction market snapshot from July 20 showed a 14.5% probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 this month and a 4.1% probability of reaching $72,500. The probability of hitting the $67,500 level was 34.5%, while the downside probability of reaching $62,500 was 67.4%.

Each threshold is an independent, non-exclusive binary event, so Bitcoin can trigger multiple thresholds within a single month of volatility. These contracts measure whether a specific level is touched at any point during July.

The profit from the options spread is tied to its structure expiring on July 31. Therefore, these percentages provide broader market context but address different questions than those related to the spread.

The Federal Reserve's official calendar schedules the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting for July 28 and 29. The policy decision will be announced on July 29 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. The call spread expires on July 31.

The Federal Reserve decision comes at the final stage of trading. Based on Bitcoin’s price on July 20, a breakout above the $69,000 level is still required to reach the $70,000 to $72,000 range, where recent buying and selling activity has been concentrated.

CryptoSlate’s on-chain analysis on July 19 set the recent buyers’ cost basis near $69,000, when Bitcoin traded below that level. The same analysis identified $52,891 as a conditional lower pressure boundary should weak demand persist. Both levels shift as the coin trades, making them moving reference points rather than fixed targets.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows provided a second test of demand. Farside’s daily tables recorded net inflows of $197 million from July 6 to 10 and $75 million from July 13 to 17, totaling $272 million. A single trading day saw $424 million in outflows, demonstrating how quickly a brief positive run can reverse.

ETF buyers still added $272 million over the past two weeks, but a single-day outflow of $424 million shows how quickly this support could vanish. A sustained breakout above the $69,000–$70,000 range, coupled with more stable inflows, would provide broader confirmation of a bullish spread. A sustained failure at this level would render this trade an isolated tactical position prior to expiration.

Digital asset financial services firm NYDIG stated on July 10 that matching the duration of the first two major cycle pullbacks, combined with a roughly 70% shallower decline, could suggest a potential low around $38,000 to $39,000 in early October.

Coinbase Institutional’s analysis on July 3 identified the $58,000 to $59,000 range as the first strong support zone, followed by $48,000 to $50,000, approximately $42,000, and $39,000 to $40,000 in the event of higher levels failing. Its July 6 position report described end-of-June positions as being cleaned out, with options skew favoring downside protection. Both pieces provided earlier risk benchmarks prior to the July 18 call spread flow.

Citibank has lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and set a bearish scenario of $53,000, contingent on a recession and sustained ETF outflows. Citibank has also reduced its assumed 12-month net ETF inflow from $10 billion to zero. In two other outlooks, Standard Chartered has maintained its target of $100,000 by the end of 2026, while Bernstein has retained its clearly ambitious year-end target of $150,000.

These figures cover the cycle scenario at the beginning of October, conditional support zones, 12-month bank targets, and year-end targets.

The decision tree for July is shorter: spot must cover an 8.9% gap to $70,000, absorb selling pressure near recent buyers' cost bases, and do so against an uneven ETF funding flow backdrop.

Bitcoin rose 0.80% in the past 24 hours and is currently ranked #1 by market capitalization.

The current total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is $2.23 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $69.65 billion. Bitcoin's market dominance is 58.73%.