Morgan Stanley Raises SpaceX Target Price by 118% Amid $10 Billion Starbase Project

According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley report dated August 25, 2026, announced SpaceX’s $100 billion Starbase project in Louisiana, planning five launch complexes with a total of ten launch pads, construction to begin in 2027 and first flight in 2029. SpaceX currently has a total of 15 launch pads planned. Morgan Stanley believes the market has not fully grasped the scale of Starship; even without accounting for the new facility, only eight launch pads would be needed to support launch projections by 2040. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating with a price target of $300, representing an 118% upside from the current price of $137. Louisiana offered a substantial incentive package, with four key site selection factors: access to polar orbits, natural gas supply, political hedging, and government incentives. Starship’s payload capacity exceeds that of Falcon 9 by more than five times and is fully reusable. Morgan Stanley expects launch costs to fall to $500 per kilogram by 2030 and below $200 per kilogram by 2035. In Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts valuation, the Enterprise AI business is valued at $165; the current stock price implies a valuation multiple of only single-digit levels for this segment, with the orbital AI call option nearly priced at zero. SpaceX has completed its final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida; all future Starlink missions will be conducted by Starship, each providing downlink capacity several times greater than Falcon 9.