According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley report dated September 4, 2026, predicts that hyperscale data center capital expenditures will reach $1.5 trillion in 2027, a 60% year-over-year increase, with growth sharply declining to 12% in 2028. Total AI computing capacity is expected to rise from 35 gigawatts in 2025 to 145 gigawatts in 2028, a fourfold increase. The share of custom chips in new capacity will grow from 34% to 66%, led by Google’s TPU and Amazon’s Trainium. The return on investment for GenAI ranges between 25% and 50%, with the highest returns (approximately 46%) achieved by running API models on proprietary infrastructure. Approximately 25% of S&P 500 companies have quantified GenAI benefits, up from 14% a year ago.
Morgan Stanley: The Era of AI Inference Begins, Capital Expenditure to Slow by 2028
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Summary
AI + crypto news reports that a Morgan Stanley analysis from September 4, 2026, shows hyperscale vendor data center capital spending will reach $1.5 trillion in 2027, a 60% year-over-year increase, but decline to 12% growth in 2028. AI computing capacity will rise from 35 gigawatts in 2025 to 145 gigawatts in 2028. Custom chips will account for 66% of new capacity by 2028, led by Google TPU and Amazon Trainium. GenAI returns range between 25% and 50%, with the highest returns coming from in-house APIs. Approximately 25% of S&P 500 companies have now measured GenAI benefits, up from 14% in 2025. On-chain news continues to highlight evolving dynamics in technology capital spending.
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