SpaceX shares have slid to a level where the market is effectively saying its AI business is worth zero. That’s the takeaway from Morgan Stanley analysts, who note that with the stock trading near $100, investors are assigning almost no value to the AI capabilities SpaceX absorbed when it merged with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year.
For a company that Morgan Stanley projects could generate roughly $190 billion in AI-related revenue by 2030, that’s quite the discount.
The math behind the zero
When SpaceX and xAI completed their merger in February 2026, the combined entity carried a valuation of approximately $1.25 trillion. The IPO target was even loftier: $1.75 trillion.
Earlier funding rounds had priced shares at $421 apiece, based on an $800 billion valuation and a $2.56 billion investment. Now the stock is hovering around $100.
According to Morgan Stanley’s breakdown, that haircut effectively wipes out the entire implied value of SpaceX’s AI operations, leaving only the legacy space launch and Starlink businesses reflected in the price.
Morgan Stanley’s analysts aren’t buying it. Their view is that the underlying fundamentals for SpaceX remain largely intact, and that current levels represent an attractive entry point for investors.
Why the selloff, and why now
The post-IPO lock-up period expires on August 6, 2026. That’s the date when early investors, employees, and insiders gain the ability to sell their shares on the open market for the first time.
Morgan Stanley attributes the share weakness to declining hype around the stock rather than any fundamental deterioration.
The AI revenue thesis
Morgan Stanley’s projections for SpaceX’s AI business are ambitious. The bank’s June 2026 analysis forecasted AI-related revenue hitting approximately $190 billion by 2030. Looking further out, total company revenue could approach $3.4 trillion by 2040.
Morgan Stanley’s point is that even if you’re skeptical about the AI revenue projections, pricing the entire AI business at zero seems like an overcorrection.
What this means for investors
When the lock-up expires on August 6, early investors sitting on shares they acquired at prices well below $421 per share may decide to take profits. Even if only a fraction of locked-up shares hit the market, the supply increase could push prices lower still.
The counterargument, and the one Morgan Stanley is making, is that if the AI business genuinely has the potential to generate the kind of revenue the bank is projecting, then a stock price that assigns zero value to that entire segment represents a significant mispricing.