Written by: Rita
SpaceX announced a $100 billion Starbase project in the Louisiana swamps, planning 10 launch pads, with construction set to begin in 2027 and the first launch in 2029. Morgan Stanley believes the market has not fully grasped the scale of Starship; even without accounting for this new facility, Morgan Stanley’s 2040 launch projections could be supported by just eight launch pads, while SpaceX is planning for 15.
On August 25, Morgan Stanley released a research report on SpaceX, indicating that the 10 launch pads at Starbase LA may signal a launch cadence far exceeding current expectations. With SpaceX’s current stock price at $137, Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $300 and maintained an Overweight rating, suggesting investors have an opportunity to reassess the company near its IPO price, as its fundamental momentum is stronger than at the time of its listing.
The Louisiana facility is much larger than existing facilities.
Starbase LA is located on the former ExxonMobil property in Vermilion Parish and is planned to include five launch complexes (each with two launch pads, totaling ten), along with propellant production facilities, a power plant, vehicle processing facilities, and employee housing. The project is expected to create 3,000 direct jobs. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry personally participated in the announcement ceremony.
This will become SpaceX’s fourth and largest launch facility, expected to support thousands of launches annually and play a central role in scaling Starship missions. Combined with Pad 1 and Pad 2 at Starbase in Texas, LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center, and SLC-37A and SLC-37B at Cape Canaveral, SpaceX has currently planned a total of 15 launch pads.
Why was it built in Louisiana?
Morgan Stanley summarized four reasons.
Unique launch trajectory. Louisiana expands access to polar orbits, which is critical for orbital calculations.
Natural gas. Louisiana is the third-largest natural gas-producing state in the U.S., and each Starship launch requires more than 1,000 tons of liquid methane.
Political hedging. Texas and Florida are facing bipartisan pushback on data centers and AI; cross-jurisdictional布局 helps SpaceX maintain negotiation flexibility.
Government incentives. Over the past year, Louisiana has tailored a comprehensive incentive package for SpaceX, including sales tax rebates on aerospace facility purchases, extended industrial tax exemptions, liability protections for aerospace entities, and state-assisted land transfers.
Starship is SpaceX's ultimate scalable booster.
Starship’s payload is more than five times that of the Falcon 9, and it is fully reusable, whereas the Falcon 9 is only partially reusable. Morgan Stanley believes that reusable rockets are the elevator to space. Just as elevators transformed the architectural landscape of Manhattan, a space elevator will enable new architectures in orbit, on the Moon, and beyond.
SpaceX aims to reduce launch costs from a historical average of $18,500 per kilogram to under $200 per kilogram. Morgan Stanley forecasts that Starship will bring launch costs down to approximately $500 per kilogram by 2030 and below $200 per kilogram by 2035.
The key path is the recovery and reuse of Starship. SpaceX has successfully captured the Super Heavy booster three times and reused it twice; physical recovery of Starship is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. The real focus is not on recovery itself, but on turnaround time.
Morgan Stanley's model assumes that Starship will achieve approximately two flights (i.e., one reuse) between 2027 and 2029, 17 flights by 2035, and 43 flights by 2040. It will take eight years for the booster to reach over 30 reuses, consistent with the historical reuse rate of the Falcon 9. Even if Starship cannot be reused initially, its scale alone will significantly reduce internal launch costs, and Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX to begin launching Starlink missions using Starship by late 2026 or 2027.
Valuation and Stock Price Potential
Morgan Stanley arrived at a $300 target price using a sum-of-the-parts valuation. The Space business is valued at $8, Connectivity at $118, X and Grok at $8, and Enterprise AI at $165 (already incorporating a 50% execution risk discount). With the current stock price at $137, the implied multiple for the Enterprise AI business is in the low single digits, and the option value for轨道 AI is virtually priced at zero.
Morgan Stanley conducted a sensitivity analysis: assuming a nominal compute power consumption of $50 per watt and a 70% incremental margin, each additional gigawatt capitalized at a 10x EBITDA multiple adds $27 to the stock price, equivalent to approximately 20% of the current share price. Morgan Stanley estimates AI compute capacity at 4.9 gigawatts by the end of fiscal 2027, with the company targeting nearly 10 gigawatts.
SpaceX also announced the completion of the final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida, with all future Florida-based Starlink missions transitioning to Starship. Each Starship launch offers 25 times the downlink capacity of a Falcon 9, allowing a minimal number of launches to offset the reduced frequency of Falcon 9 missions. Morgan Stanley views this as a clear indication of the company’s commitment to transitioning to Starship, a key signal for understanding SpaceX’s long-term value.
Disclaimer
This article is a compilation and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report (Morgan Stanley, August 25, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage’s analysts and represent the position of their respective institution only; they do not reflect the views of Chaoxiang Research nor constitute any investment advice.
The market carries risks; make decisions independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.