ChainThink reports that, on August 18, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest Greater China semiconductor report, the bank maintains an “attractive” outlook for the Greater China tech semiconductor sector, expecting DDR4 price momentum to continue through the fourth quarter of this year, with price upcycles for some legacy memory products potentially lasting until 2027.
Reports indicate that major mainstream storage manufacturers continue to exit the supply of mature products such as DDR4, and the supply-demand dynamics for older-generation memory are still improving. Morgan Stanley expects DDR4 prices to rise by approximately 50% in the third quarter, with double-digit increases continuing in the fourth quarter.
Demand related to consumer electronics is also spreading, not just driven by server demand.
Morgan Stanley is most bullish on SLC NAND price performance, expecting increases of over 50% in both Q3 and Q4, primarily due to capacity constraints and suppliers' reluctance to reallocate wafer capacity.
The report also suggests that the shift in MLC demand toward SLC will support continued price increases through the first half of 2027; following recent price hikes, NOR Flash may see another price increase in the fourth quarter, with momentum extending into the first half of 2027.
Individually, Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecasts for Winbond, Macronix, GigaDevice, and Powerchip.
Among them, Winbond's EPS forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been raised by 17%, 30%, and 34%, respectively, while Macronix's forecasts have been raised by 139%, 144%, and 147%.
GigaDevice's target price has been lowered from RMB 888 to RMB 750, but its EPS forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been increased by 108%, 49%, and 48%, respectively.