Today, I feel that Moore Threads has drawn considerable attention, primarily because it managed to hit the daily trading limit down on a Monday.
01
A circuit breaker may sound alarming, but it’s more important to understand how it happened. At 9:30 AM, the price opened at 498 yuan, down 4% from the previous close. Within minutes, it plunged straight to the daily lower limit of 415.48 yuan and never recovered for the rest of the day.
The market capitalization dropped by approximately $48.8 billion in a single day, falling below $200 billion.
Nearly nine months since listing, for the first time, it has also hit a new all-time low, with total daily trading volume reaching 3.467 billion and turnover approaching 15%, a volume ratio exceeding 12 times—significant volume increase, panic setting in, and shares flooding out.
Here’s the question: Two days before the circuit breaker, it had just delivered a performance that many viewed as impressive.
Revenue for the first half of the year reached RMB 1.736 billion, a 147% year-over-year increase, achieving last year’s full-year volume in just six months; losses narrowed to RMB 11.56 million, representing a 95.73% year-over-year reduction in losses.
Excluding non-cash expenses such as stock-based compensation, the company earned $83.53 million in the first half of the year—its first-ever semi-annual profit. The overall gross margin stood at 56.95%, which is not low for the semiconductor industry.
Looks good on the surface, but the financials haven't truly turned profitable. After excluding non-recurring items, the company still incurred a loss of RMB 151 million. Looking solely at the second quarter, attributable net loss amounted to RMB 41 million, with the balance sheet still supported by government subsidies and investment gains.
Some might say, with fundamentals this strong, the circuit breaker drop must be an overreaction.
I don’t think so. Business performance and stock price are two different things; this report was released in early August, and the market had a month to react but didn’t push the price up.
After the earnings call on September 3rd, the stock price remained unchanged. With such a strong report, why did the daily price limit down hit on this very day?
Starting today, the lock-up schedule released at listing begins to turn page by page.
What is a lock-up expiration? A batch of shares, whose lock-up period has ended, can now be sold on the market starting today. This batch amounts to 25.77 million shares, representing 5.48% of the total outstanding shares. It may sound small, but don’t judge by the percentage alone.
Before the lock-up expiration, Moore had only 30.22 million shares available for free trading on the market. Once the lock-up expired, the floating supply increased by 85% overnight, nearly doubling.
When the float is small, even a modest amount of buying pressure can push the price up sharply. When it first listed, its price surged all the way to 941 yuan.
Beyond the story of domestic GPUs, there’s another very practical reason: there are far too few chips available on the market, with hundreds of billions of capital competing for just 300 million shares.
By the same logic, on the lock-up expiration date, the available supply of shares suddenly nearly doubles. When selling pressure hits, there’s no buying support below, forcing prices to plunge toward the daily lower circuit limit. Rises depend on limited supply; declines depend on excess supply. It’s supply that determines price, not stories.
It’s also important to clearly see who holds these shares.
The holders are institutional investors that participated in the offline allocation during the listing, including public funds, social security funds, insurance companies, and foreign investors—all of which appear on the list. Major fund managers such as E Fund, Southern Fund, and ICBC Credit Suisse each secured hundreds of millions of yuan worth of shares at the time.
Their cost basis is 114.28 yuan; even if sold at today’s daily price limit of 415 yuan, each share still nets a profit of 300 yuan. After holding for nine months, the value more than doubled—once the lock-up period ends, cashing out is a natural instinct and cannot be considered morally wrong.
There’s another detail: why did the collapse occur on September 7 instead of the announcement date of August 29?
The company announced the lock-up expiration on August 29. Over the following five trading days, the stock price fluctuated around 519 yuan without crashing—the difference lies in eligibility.
Major shareholders must wait in line to sell their holdings, with quarterly limits and a mandatory 15-day advance notice; this group of institutions doesn’t have to—their shares were already allocated at listing, and they can sell them on the same day.
The market had already anticipated the announcement, but only now, starting today, are those truly qualified to sell able to enter. Until this page on the calendar turns, no amount of panic can drive sales; once it turns, no one holds back.
On the same day, the semiconductor sector rose 3.36%, and Cambricon closed up nearly 2%, indicating that the tailwind for AI computing power continues.
Among so many chip stocks, only this one hit the daily price limit down. The company responded that its production and operations continue to improve, and new products under the Huagang architecture are set to launch this year, urging investors to maintain a rational perspective. There’s nothing wrong with this statement—the business is indeed unaffected.
But today, what's pricing this stock isn't business at all.
Today’s chapter has turned; the majority of the unlocked shares remain held by institutions. Total trading volume for the day was 8.24 million shares—at most, only about 30% of the unlocked supply was traded. The number of sell orders waiting at the daily price limit down is even greater than the volume traded.
02
I checked, and it’s even more concerning that on December 7, three months from now, another 186 million shares will vest—more than seven times today’s amount. Those holders can exit freely, but the others don’t have that same freedom.
Because the shares held by that group of people are not from the same source as those of today’s group.
This batch consists of shares allocated at the time of listing—186 million shares expiring in December, the majority of which were already on the shareholder register prior to the company’s listing.
First identify the shareholders, then calculate the accounts; based on data from the prospectus and market software, shareholders who entered before and after Moore’s listing can be roughly divided into three tiers.
Layer one, the portion reserved for large institutions at listing, commonly known in industry terms as strategic placement, totaling approximately 12.6 million shares.
China Telecom Capital, Beijing Electric Control, National Adjustment Fund Phase II, and China Insurance Investment Fund—these investors, primarily state-owned and insurance capital, initially came to show support with a 12-month lock-up period, which expires exactly in December.
Layer two, the last round before listing.
By the end of 2024, 38 institutions subscribed to 70.02 million shares at RMB 74.64 per share—the large sum of money the company received before its listing came from them.
The outermost layer is the largest, containing early investors such as Sequoia Capital funds and Shanghai Guosheng Capital, who participated in funding rounds from 2020 to 2023. Their cost is the lowest, ranging from a few yuan to dozens of yuan.
Three tiers of people, three tiers of restrictions, rules determined by years of holding.
Some users on Xueqiu are already counting down, saying December will be the real stress test and today’s limit down was just a rehearsal. This is half right—there is indeed pressure, but the scenario is misjudged; they’re using today’s script for actors who won’t be on stage until three months from now.
The last layer to enter is actually the most difficult.
Pre-IPO shareholders who entered at the end of 2024 acquired shares at NT$74.64 each; they are now worth NT$415, more than quintupling in value and holding the largest paper gains.
However, the subscription date for these shares is less than a year before the company’s IPO filing; under regulatory rules on last-minute investments, these shares are subject to a 36-month lock-up period and won’t be eligible for release until the end of 2028 at the earliest—right now, you don’t even qualify to join the waiting list to sell them.
The cheap capital that entered between 2020 and 2023 is truly maturing this December.
Shares acquired before listing must be sold in accordance with a waiting schedule; direct sales on the market are limited to 1% of total shares every 90 days, while bulk transfers to institutions allow an additional 2%.
Registered venture capital funds can accelerate based on the length of holding, but funds like Qianyao and Minghao, which entered in 2020, have only just reached the 60-month threshold by the listing date. Sequoia and Shengxin, which entered in 2021, are still short by a margin and must follow the 1% per 30-day tier. Even the most cost-effective options cannot be expedited.
The longer you hold, the more freedom you gain—old money costing a few yuan is freer than new money priced at 74.64 yuan.
Old Qian also has three burdens:
First, deregulation does not result in automatic settlement—you must handle the procedures individually for each entity. Second, even if restrictions are lifted, a position of ten to twenty million shares cannot be liquidated in a single day. Today’s market activity demonstrated this clearly: the total trading volume for the day was just 8.24 million shares, and the market cannot absorb large sell orders.
Third, if you really want to exit quickly, you can only package your assets for institutional buyers, and packaging usually requires a discount.
For example:
Holding a large position and wanting to sell, but placing a market order risks crashing the price; approaching peers to take it off your hands, they demand a 10% discount. In stocks, this is called block trading. When the discount is too steep, it drags down the price anchor.
This batch of state-owned and insurance capital could theoretically sell in December, but they entered as long-term shareholders, not looking to profit from price speculation. China Insurance Investment Fund alone invested 500 million yuan.
Turn back the calendar:
On June 5, 840,000 shares were unlocked, accounting for 0.18% of the total shares outstanding—too small to attract attention.
At the time of issuance, the lock-up periods for institutional investors offline were intentionally divided into multiple tiers—some locked for six months, others for nine months. This staggered approach was deliberately designed to prevent all tokens from being dumped in a single day.
Therefore, on December 7th, it is highly unlikely that today's four-minute circuit breaker decline will be repeated.
When it comes to daily unlock pressure, among this December batch, only the 12.6 million shares from the strategic allocation have no restrictions—less than half of today’s 25.77 million shares—and no one expects them to flood the market the moment they unlock.
The bulk of the remaining amount still requires monthly waiting, even with the most relaxed tier.
Based on the experience from September, the November announcement is the starting gun. Before the lock-up expires, the company will first issue a listing and circulation notice—this is merely a prelude. Going forward, whenever major shareholders want to sell, they must announce their reduction plans in advance, specifying how much they intend to sell and when. Each such announcement becomes a test of market sentiment.
So instead of fearing December 7th, get used to the fact that there will be sell-off announcements every quarter going forward.
03
This slow supply will eventually run out, and pricing power will inevitably return to earnings— the only question is how long it will take?
To estimate this time, first look at a ready reference: Cambricon five years ago.
In July 2021, Cambricon experienced its first post-IPO lock-up expiration, amid the spotlight of being the first AI chip company to go public. The shares released for sale accounted for more than half of the company’s total market capitalization at the time, and the stock price dropped by 7% that day.
Worse was yet to come as shareholders began announcing their planned sell-offs one after another—Gushengdai, China Merchants Bank-affiliated entities—each filing in succession, causing the stock price to drop 75% from its peak over the course of more than a year.
At that time, it was losing over 800 million yuan per year, and in its worst year, it lost more than 1.2 billion yuan; voices of skepticism never stopped.
What did it later rely on to turn things around and become profitable?
In 2025, Cambricon posted its first annual profit, netting over 2 billion yuan. Its stock price rose from 348 yuan in mid-2025 to 1,620 yuan over 11 months, and by June 2026, its market capitalization exceeded one trillion yuan, becoming the first company on the STAR Market to do so.
It took four years from the lock-up expiration to profit realization.
Moore Threads doesn’t need four years; less than a year after going public, it has already turned a profit when excluding non-cash expenses like share-based compensation. With both companies facing lock-up expirations, their situations are worlds apart.
Looking back on this experience, two opposing conclusions can be drawn: some say enduring the lock-up release is a golden opportunity, while others say it’s a value shredder; both viewpoints have their own factual basis, so I won’t make a judgment here—you can compare and reference them yourself.
Additionally, chip companies are rushing to go public, with the last of the "Four Little Dragons," SuoYuan Technology, just completing its subscription and nearing its listing.
For medium- to short-term investors, I believe you should focus on three things going forward.
First, regarding the减持 announcement in November, after market close, several new lines will appear in the announcement section—don’t rush to criticize; first check three things: who is selling, how much they intend to sell, and how many days have passed since the lock-up period ended.
Announcing the notice only in the final days suggests it’s not urgent. Releasing a plan to fully utilize the unlocked quota within just a couple of days indicates a clear intention to exit, and the coming quarters will not be smooth.
If even the state-owned capital that initially supported the project appears on the list, that’s a truly significant signal—share reduction announcements reflect the stance of existing shareholders and are more truthful than the day’s stock price.
Second, the discount on block trades.
A 10% discount is polite; an 15% discount is urgent. The day the discounts shrink—or no one is willing to sell at a discount—that selling pressure has truly run its course. Large-volume trade prices are publicly disclosed after market close, so there’s no need to monitor intraday charts; just check once at the end of each trading day.
Third, how did Muxi Shares perform on September 17th.
In ten days, another 13.966 million shares, accounting for 3.49% of the total capital, will be unlocked. It may sound small, but its current circulating supply is even smaller than Moore’s.这批货占它解禁前流通盘的 75%，等于把这场戏提前彩排一遍，跟天气预报一样准。
Muxi remained stable today, as market fears over the lock-up expiration are receding, and the pressure on Moore will also ease slightly in December. If Muxi were to crash as well, it wouldn't just be a problem for Moore alone—the entire domestic GPU sector would be swept up in the wave of lock-up expirations.
There’s another type of noise you don’t need to pay attention to—how the stock price fluctuates daily, or the posts in forums shouting about how low it will fall or when to buy the dip. These are just guesses until the calendar has fully turned.
During this downturn, the only two forces that can support the price are the company itself and new capital.
First, the company can't handle it itself.
Where the money goes is visible on the financial statements. R&D spent 769 million over six months, inventory sits at 3.55 billion, cash and investments on hand are down 1.4 billion from the start of the year, and operating cash outflow for the first half exceeded 2.1 billion. Meanwhile, plans are already underway to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
There’s no cash on hand to spare for a buyback to support the price.
Even the founder could only watch helplessly; Zhang Jianzhong directly and indirectly controlled about 30% of the equity, all of which was locked. He didn’t even have the eligibility to reduce his stake until the company turned a genuine profit on its financial statements.
On the day it hit the daily trading limit, the paper value of his directly held shares dropped by 4.6 billion in a single day—the person who understood the company best was also the one with the least freedom.
Where’s the new money? New money is the most pragmatic—it waits until the calendar has turned significantly and performance has spoken for several consecutive quarters before entering.
The first three items are traffic signals for new money; but how long will this slow supply last, and when will pricing power return to the earnings report? Hard to say.
Data source:
[1]. Moore Threads' listing, circulation, and lock-up release announcement, H1 2026 financial report, and offering materials; reduction rules are derived from public regulations such as the CSRC's Interim Measures for the Administration of Share Reduction by Listed Company Shareholders; market and lock-up data are sourced from closing prices and Wind/Choice as of September 7, 2026; this document is not intended as investment advice and represents only a retrospective analysis.
This article is from the WeChat public account "Wang Zhiyuan" (ID: Z201440), authored by Wang Zhiyuan.