Monte Carlo simulations predict that Bitcoin's high by the end of 2033 could reach $5.8 million, while its low by December 2028 could be $116,000.
The second model incorporates new variables that did not exist before 2018, including derivatives and ETFs.
The article states that the Fed's report on Wednesday and ETF fund flows are the main drivers influencing BTC's short-term price.
It is worth noting that Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical model that uses probability to simulate asset prices.
Bitcoin Forecast 2027–2034: Model One
On platform X, a Bitcoin data expert using the pseudonym "Smithston With" presented the first scenario. He ran 5,000 simulations between 2027 and 2034 and noted, "None of the results fell below the current $80,000."
The model's median year-end price estimates for this period are: $170,000 by the end of 2027, $266,000 by the end of 2028, and $537,000 by the end of 2030.
By the end of 2034, the model sets the 5th percentile distribution of Bitcoin at $464,000 (approximately six times the current price of $79,968). At the 95th percentile, the simulation yields a result of $5.62 million, roughly seventy times the current price.
Bitcoin Forecast 2027–2034: Model Two
The second scenario, proposed by Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, is inspired by the first model but is overall more conservative. Woo’s model ran 10,000 paths while incorporating adjustments such as Bitcoin’s current position in its cycle.
In addition, the second model uses historical Bitcoin data rather than an idealized distribution. Woo intentionally selected the period from 2018 to 2022 as the reference data, noting that Bitcoin before 2018 was in its "primitive era," when achieving 100x gains was relatively easy. The time frame he chose also incorporates factors such as derivatives, ETFs, and rapid liquidations.
He still uses the Bitcoin Power Law framework, which shows that as asset scale increases, Bitcoin's annual percentage return continues to decline.
By the end of 2028, Woo’s model projects a price range of $116,000 to $413,000. By April 2030, the range expands to $51,900 to $1,000,000, and by the end of 2033, it reaches $1.2 million to $4.45 million.
He added that the 29th and 50th percentile prices are reasonable, with a lower value of $126,000 in April 2030 and a higher value of $1.03 million in February 2033.
What factors could influence Bitcoin's future price?
The article states that Bitcoin's short-term price movement is likely to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Other factors include the midterm elections and ETF trends. The latter has shown negative performance over the past five days, during which assets under management (AUM) decreased by $1 billion.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic policies, institutional capital flows, and regulatory developments may significantly impact Bitcoin's long-term price.