On Friday, Micron’s stock closed down 13%, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025. The immediate trigger was a report from SemiAnalysis claiming that NVIDIA had significantly reduced the modular memory capacity of its next-generation Vera Rubin server rack from 55TB to 28TB, which the market interpreted as a sign of cooling demand for AI memory. On the same day, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly announced that Micron, alongside SK Hynix and Samsung, had passed NVIDIA’s HBM4 certification and become an approved supplier for the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory. However, this positive news failed to offset the selling pressure sparked by the report. Notably, SemiAnalysis has issued multiple bearish reports on Micron over the past several months, all of which were later contradicted by the company’s stock performance and fundamentals.

Article author and source: Wall Street Journal

A report from the semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis once again triggered a sharp single-day decline in Micron Technology's stock price.

On Friday, Micron's stock closed down 13%, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025, following the latest wave of market panic triggered by multiple bearish reports issued by SemiAnalysis.

The immediate trigger for this decline was a report by SemiAnalysis stating that NVIDIA had significantly reduced the modular memory capacity of its next-generation Vera Rubin server rack from 55 TB to 28 TB, which the market interpreted as a sign of cooling demand for AI memory.

Upon the news breaking, Micron's stock plunged sharply that day, putting pressure on the entire semiconductor sector, with all three major indices closing lower. Notably, on the same day, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly announced that Micron, alongside SK Hynix and Samsung, had successfully passed NVIDIA’s HBM4 certification and is now an approved supplier for the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory.

However, the positive news failed to counter the selling pressure triggered by the report. SemiAnalysis later responded on the social platform X, stating that its analysis contained "no bearish elements whatsoever," but this defense barely sparked any reversal in the market.

Meanwhile, several market participants and netizens have strongly questioned the quality of SemiAnalysis’s research and its methods of information dissemination, arguing that the firm has repeatedly manufactured bearish narratives about Micron under the guise of "in-depth research," only to be contradicted by stock price movements and the company’s fundamental performance.

Bullish and bearish factors occur on the same day; Micron plunges 13% in a single day.

Friday was a mixed day for Micron.

Jensen Huang confirmed publicly that Micron has been certified as an HBM4 supplier by NVIDIA, joining SK Hynix and Samsung.

Wall Street analysts had generally expected NVIDIA to adopt three suppliers, but KeyBanc analyst John Vinh previously noted that SK Hynix and Micron faced certain challenges in meeting NVIDIA’s standards. Therefore, this official certification should have been a significant positive for Micron.

However, Micron's stock closed down 13% at $864.01, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025. Combined with Thursday's 7.7% drop, Micron's two-day cumulative decline has exceeded 20%.

According to Dow Jones market data, Micron's stock had previously risen more than 735% over the past 12 months, making it highly sensitive to any profit-taking.

The core controversy in the SemiAnalysis report: Modular memory or HBM?

The market volatility triggered by this SemiAnalysis report centers on NVIDIA reducing the modular memory (SOCAMM DRAM) capacity in the Vera Rubin server racks.

It should be noted that modular memory and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which powers AI server memory chips, are two distinct product categories. Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, later posted a clarification stating that the firm’s analysis contained "no bearish sentiment whatsoever."

According to Barron’s, NVIDIA’s reduction in modular memory capacity may actually reflect the crowding-out effect of HBM—since HBM production consumes significantly more wafer capacity (approximately three times that of standard memory), the expansion of HBM supply inevitably compresses capacity for other memory types and drives up prices across the entire memory industry.

Analysts from the research firm Trendforce wrote:

As HBM technology generations continue to evolve through 2027, increasing chip sizes and rising demand are expected to further intensify the displacement effect on traditional DRAM capacity. This will provide suppliers with strong justification to raise HBM prices and strengthen their pricing power in next year’s HBM negotiations.

Repeatedly bearish and repeatedly proven wrong, SemiAnalysis has become a point of controversy.

This incident is not the first time SemiAnalysis has caused market volatility due to a report involving Micron, nor is it the first time its analysis has been proven incorrect afterward.

User @Klaytonlolus on social platform X compiled a timeline of SemiAnalysis’s multiple bearish reports on Micron over the past several months:

• In early January, SemiAnalysis reported that Micron's HBM4 sample pins had weaker performance compared to SK Hynix and Samsung. At that time, Micron's stock price was around $430; it has since risen to over $920, an increase of more than 114%.
• On January 28, SemiAnalysis stated that NVIDIA’s Rubin first-year HBM4 order “shows no sign of Micron.” At that time, Micron’s stock price was $435.28; since then, it has risen above $920, an increase of over 111%.
• On February 6, SemiAnalysis released its most influential report, stating that Micron's share of HBM4 within Rubin's first 12 months would be "essentially zero." At that time, Micron's stock price was $394.69; it has since risen above $920, an increase of over 133%. If calculated from the March low of $321, the rise exceeds 186%.
• From June 4 to 5, SemiAnalysis released another report stating that NVIDIA reduced the CPU-side SOCAMM DRAM capacity for Vera Rubin, suggesting a cooling in memory demand. Micron's stock closed at $996 on June 4 and dropped to around $920 the next day, a single-day decline of approximately 7.5%.

Klaytonlolus wrote in the post:

This is no longer just a matter of "one misjudgment." It’s a repeated pattern of presenting supply chain narratives as in-depth industry research, delivered with extreme confidence—only to be sharply contradicted by stock prices, fundamentals, and the AI memory supercycle.

SemiAnalysis responds: The battle of information asymmetry

In response to external criticism, SemiAnalysis stated that the true conclusion of its report was that "Micron's HBM delays are beneficial for Micron, as the profit margins for standard DDR are higher than those for HBM," and added that critics had not even read the full report, saying, "Those making such claims don't even have subscription access."

However, this response itself sparked new controversy. User Vinit Baliyan asked:

Why can’t you share this type of information with a broader subscriber base? Are you providing accurate information to institutional clients while leaving ordinary subscribers and retail investors confused? This effectively gives your wealthy clients an asymmetric advantage at the expense of retail investors.

Another user, Klaytonlolus, pointed out that SemiAnalysis’s report was widely cited by multiple media outlets, with its core message interpreted as “NVIDIA has not placed orders for HBM4 with Micron”—a clear bearish framework. In response, Micron’s CFO publicly refuted the “inaccurate reporting,” stating that HBM4 has entered mass production, customer shipments have begun, and the production ramp is ahead of schedule by one quarter. Micron subsequently officially announced that HBM4 36GB 12H has entered mass production, specifically designed for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin, offering bandwidth exceeding 2.8 TB/s and over 20% improved energy efficiency.

Klaytonlolus wrote, "The issue isn't whether readers read the full report; the issue is that your headline, summary, and framework created a clear bearish narrative on Micron, which was later contradicted by Micron’s management and official product announcements. This isn't 'in-depth research'—it's irresponsible framing combined with post-hoc crisis PR."

Despite significant criticism, SemiAnalysis still has some supporters within the industry.

Paid subscriber "Macho Man Randy Newman" stated,

SemiAnalysis’s in-depth report helped him maintain his position even after memory stocks had surged significantly, resulting in a 22x return on his Micron holdings. He believes that SemiAnalysis provides detailed factual reporting, but its editorial conclusions require readers to form their own judgments.

User Dave holds a neutral position:

No matter how detailed these blogs and Substack posts are, they are ultimately just that—posts. Do your own research, and if you have conviction, you must filter out the noise. Personally, I believe SemiAnalysis provides more signal than noise, but no one is without bias.

Some users have also pointed to deeper market structure issues. User IVCrushLeague commented:

If an analyst were wrong about SK Hynix or Samsung to this extent, they would have already gone into hiding. That’s why this kind of panic-driven information primarily targets Micron.