Memory’s share of hyperscaler capital expenditure is projected to climb from roughly 8% in 2023-2024 to approximately 30% in 2026, according to SemiAnalysis. CLSA takes the projection further, estimating that memory could account for 48% of hyperscaler capex by 2027, up from 35% in 2026.
The numbers behind the shift
Hyperscaler capex forecasts now exceed $800B for 2026, with consensus estimates approaching or surpassing $1 trillion in 2027. Firms including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Moody’s have all revised their projections upward through mid-2026.
If memory genuinely captures 48% of a trillion-dollar budget, that’s nearly $500B flowing into DRAM, HBM, and related technologies in a single year. For context, the entire global semiconductor industry generated around $527B in revenue in 2023.
LPDDR5 contract prices have increased more than 3x since Q1 2025. DRAM prices more broadly could more than double in 2026, with analysts expecting continued appreciation into 2027. The driver is straightforward: supply cannot keep pace with demand, and the specific type of memory AI workloads require is cannibalizing capacity from everything else.
Why memory is becoming the bottleneck
High Bandwidth Memory, the specialized DRAM that sits on top of AI accelerators, requires enormous amounts of wafer capacity to produce. Every HBM stack that gets manufactured for an Nvidia H100 or B200 is wafer capacity that isn’t producing commodity DRAM for servers, PCs, or smartphones.
HBM wafer capacity growth is being almost entirely consumed by AI accelerators, and that pressure on commodity DRAM pricing is expected to persist through at least 2027. The memory industry as a whole could generate over $1 trillion in revenue by 2028, driven largely by hyperscaler demand.
What this means for investors
SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are the three companies that dominate HBM production. SK Hynix in particular has emerged as the leading HBM supplier, having secured early design wins with Nvidia. Samsung, despite some well-documented struggles with HBM yield rates, remains the world’s largest memory manufacturer by capacity. Micron rounds out the trio with growing HBM market share and a strong position in conventional server DRAM.
When memory was 8% of capex, price swings were a rounding error. When it’s approaching half the budget, memory pricing becomes a first-order concern for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta. Their return on invested capital calculations change dramatically if DRAM prices stay elevated or climb further.