Media reports that a mediator has proposed five days of mutual concessions between the U.S. and Iran.

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. According to CNN, two U.S. officials said that U.S. military forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch a new military strike against Iran within 96 hours of receiving orders from President Donald Trump, and the scale of the operation could be substantial.

2. Due to high costs, a major ferrosilicon producer in Gansu has partially shut down its furnaces for maintenance, reducing daily output of 72 ferrosilicon by approximately 130-140 tons, with no clear timeline for resumption of production.

3. The resumption of production at coking coal mines in Shanxi continues; as of October 26, 44 mines remain shut down, a decrease of 4 from the previous week.

4. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1–20 increased by 6% compared to the same period last month.

5. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued an announcement approving the addition of new storage locations for nickel futures delivery and confirming the approved storage capacity.

6. According to the USDA, as of the week ending October 25, the U.S. soybean harvest rate was 79%, in line with market expectations of 79%, compared with 64% the previous week and a five-year average of 77%.

7. U.S. media: Mediator proposes U.S.-Iran five-day mutual concession agreement to reopen strait in exchange for lifting maritime blockade.

1. According to Reuters: Two sources said senior officials from Mecca Agreement countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan are expected to meet with Iranian counterparts in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination.

2. According to CNN, two U.S. officials said that U.S. military forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch a new military strike against Iran within 96 hours of receiving orders from President Donald Trump, with the operation potentially being substantial. Sources indicated that the U.S. military forces currently deployed in the region are sufficient to carry out potential strikes.

3. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Qatari delegation visited Tehran yesterday, as part of ongoing negotiations with regional countries and Qatar’s mediation efforts.

4. National Energy Administration: As of the end of September, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide reached 4.13 billion kilowatts, an 11.2% year-over-year increase.

5. According to CCTV News, on the 26th, Ukrainian President Zelensky submitted a related bill to the Verkhovna Rada to extend the state of war and general mobilization by another 90 days, until January 28, 2027.

6. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of October 26, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Rate Index (Europe Route) stood at 2,197.95 points, up 2.0% compared to the previous period.

7. According to Reuters: Iranian senior officials stated that talks between Tehran and members of the Mecca agreement do not involve Iran’s nuclear issue. Iran will not discuss its nuclear program until the United States meets Tehran’s demands.

8. Iranian President Pezeshkian, during meetings with officials from Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, stated that we support any consensus that contributes to the unity of Islamic nations.

9. According to The New York Times of the United States, on the evening of the 26th Beijing time, senior representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan met with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, amid widespread global concern that the U.S. and Israel may soon launch a new strike against Iran. This visit is the latest in a series of intensive diplomatic efforts by regional mediators.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.58% to $4,031.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising 0.16% to $54.03 per ounce. This round of precious metals gains was primarily driven by easing geopolitical tensions, declining oil prices alleviating inflation concerns, and buying interest entering from earlier lower levels, creating a temporary market balance ahead of Super Central Bank Week.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed down 1.96% at $101.25 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude fell 1.39% to $110.15 per barrel. Progress in Middle Eastern diplomatic efforts and Trump’s statement that he will not target Iran temporarily eased concerns over geopolitical supply disruptions, causing international oil prices to retreat from their six-month highs, with intraday losses widening at one point.

3. Most base metals in London rose, with LME zinc up 2.12% at $3,823.0 per ton, LME lead up 0.58% at $1,918.5 per ton, LME tin up 0.56% at $50,800.0 per ton, LME copper up 0.11% at $14,338.0 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.18% at $3,038.0 per ton, and LME nickel down 2.04% at $15,525.0 per ton.

1. According to Mysteel, a major ferrosilicon producer in Gansu has partially shut down its furnaces due to high costs, idling four 12,500 kVA electric arc furnaces, reducing daily ferrosilicon (72 grade) output by approximately 130–140 tons, with no clear timeline for resumption of production.

2. The total global iron ore shipment for October 19–25, 2026, was 33.674 million tons, a decrease of 1.093 million tons环比. The combined shipment from Australia and Brazil was 27.537 million tons, a decrease of 2.279 million tons环比.

3. From October 19 to October 25, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 23.602 million tons, a decrease of 4.745 million tons环比; the total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports amounted to 22.940 million tons, a decrease of 4.652 million tons环比.

4. According to research, two new coal mines have resumed production in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, with a combined approved capacity of 2.1 million tons. The county has a total of 29 coal mines with an overall capacity of 35.8 million tons, including 24 coking coal mines with a total capacity of 27.7 million tons; currently, 9 mines are actively producing, with a total capacity of 9.6 million tons.

5. The resumption of production at coking coal mines in Shanxi continues, with 44 mines still shut down as of October 26, a weekly decrease of 4; total capacity stands at 43.9 million tons, down 9.15 million tons week-over-week. Production resumption accelerated in October, with the number of shut-down mines in all counties and cities—except Qinyuan—falling to single digits. Some mines in Lüliang ceased operations after meeting their monthly production targets and are expected to fully resume production by early November.

6. According to SMM, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Whitehaven Coal's managed coal production reached 11 million tons, a 22% year-over-year increase and a 3% quarter-over-quarter increase. Equity-controlled coal sales decreased by 5% quarter-over-quarter to 6 million tons, primarily due to shipping disruptions at the RG Tanna and PWCS export terminals.

7. China Iron and Steel Association: In mid-October, key steel enterprises produced 18.94 million tons of crude steel, a 2.3% decrease环比 from the previous period. Steel inventories at steel enterprises amounted to 17.22 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons环比 from the previous period.

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 26, the total MEG inventory in the East China main ports amounted to 135,000 metric tons, a decrease of 25,000 metric tons from last Thursday and 28,000 metric tons from last Monday.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 25, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao amounted to 577,100 metric tons, a decrease of 2,700 metric tons from the previous period, representing a decline of 0.46%.

3. According to Mysteel, 11 vessels carrying approximately 398,000 cubic meters of New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports this week, representing an 8% and 11% decrease respectively compared to the previous week. Last week, actual arrivals totaled 449,000 cubic meters, up 42% week-over-week. Recent arrival volumes have been fluctuating at high levels, with continued regional divergence: northern ports see lower volumes while southern ports remain concentrated, and regional price differentials are unlikely to narrow in the short term.

4. According to Longzhong Information data, this week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.3689 million tons, a decrease of 102,100 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 6.94%.

5. The Shanghai Futures Exchange approves China Sinotrans East China Co., Ltd. to relocate its natural rubber futures storage facility from No. 988 Jiefang Island Road, Minhang District, Shanghai, to No. 88 Gangying Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai. The approved storage capacity of 20,000 tons remains unchanged, with no regional premium or discount applied.

6. According to Axios, citing relevant letters, senior Democratic officials expected to assume key roles next year are demanding that major banks and ports retain all records related to potential imports or other transactions involving Russian diesel.

1. According to SMM, as of October 26, the social inventory of primary aluminum in China stood at the 550,000-ton level, continuing to decline from last Thursday, with the inventory reduction trend persisting, primarily in Gongyi and Wuxi.

2. According to Mysteel’s research, the latest tender price for alumina in Xinjiang is RMB 2,920 per ton (ex-factory price), down RMB 40 per ton from the previous transaction (October 19).

3. The Shanghai Futures Exchange agrees to increase the approved storage capacity of the delivery warehouse location at 240 Anda Road, Baoshan District, Shanghai, operated by Shanghai Port Cloud Warehouse (Shanghai) Warehousing Management Co., Ltd., from 10,000 tons to 15,000 tons; approves the location at 9 Yuanqu West Road, Rulin Town, Jintan District, Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province, operated by Shanghai Port Cloud Warehouse (Shanghai) Warehousing Management Co., Ltd., as a nickel futures delivery warehouse location with an approved storage capacity of 5,000 tons and no regional premium or discount; agrees to increase the approved storage capacity of the delivery warehouse location at 4088 Yixian Road, Shanghai, operated by Sinotrans East China Co., Ltd., from 10,000 tons to 15,000 tons; and approves the increase in the approved storage capacity of the delivery warehouse location at 6 Chuangye Sixth Road, Ningbo Bonded Zone West Area, operated by Ningbo Bonded Zone High-Tech Container Co., Ltd., from 5,000 tons to 8,000 tons.

4. International Aluminium Institute (IAI): Global alumina production in September 2026 was 13.194 million tons, compared to 12.978 million tons in the same period last year and a revised figure of 13.178 million tons for the previous month. Alumina production in China for September is estimated at 8.070 million tons, compared to a revised figure of 8.010 million tons for the previous month.

5. Norilsk Nickel said on Monday that a planned major overhaul of one of its key furnaces could reduce production of its critical metals in 2027–2028, while reaffirming its 2026 production forecast. Norilsk Nickel stated that next year it will begin a nine-month overhaul of a key flash smelting unit in its nickel production chain at the Nadezhda plant. The overhaul is expected to impact production of its critical metals in 2027 and possibly 2028.

1. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with methanol hitting the daily price limit.

China Everbright Futures noted that on Monday, methanol once again became the leading gainer in the energy and chemical sector. The main 2701 contract surged straight to the daily price limit in the morning session, briefly opened slightly at noon, then closed again at the limit, adding over 60,000 contracts in open interest for the day. The direct catalyst for the limit-up was the further manifestation of Iran’s supply gap. According to data from Longzhong Information, large-scale shutdowns of methanol facilities in Iran have reduced daily output to around 13,000 tons, with operating rates plunging to approximately 37%, a historically low level. Blockages in the Strait of Hormuz have further intensified expectations of a sharp contraction in future imports. While markets have been pricing in “Middle East supply disruption” for several weeks, today’s marginal shift lies in the escalation of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and airports, coupled with the U.S. State Department ordering non-essential personnel to evacuate Saudi Arabia. Geopolitical risks have expanded from “shipping disruptions” to “direct threats to production facilities,” prompting a repricing of the duration and depth of the import shortfall. Low inventories act as an amplifier of price elasticity, not the marginal driver today. Extremely low absolute levels mean any supply-side disturbance can trigger sharp volatility; however, inventory drawdowns this week have clearly slowed, as domestic vessel supplies in Jiangsu have increased and downstream terminals have halted operations. Marginal price drivers at ports are now being overtaken by geopolitical sentiment.

Looking ahead, methanol is caught in intense tension between "geopolitical realties" and "negative demand feedback." Short-term geopolitical risk premiums are unlikely to dissipate systematically, and the valuation support from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may not fully vanish. However, the demand reduction stemming from the complete shutdown of coastal MTO facilities is rigid and quantifiable, and the window is opening for port inventories to shift from extreme drawdowns to modest accumulation. The cost-effectiveness of further long positions in methanol is declining, while the persistent buildup of negative demand feedback may be setting an upper boundary for this geopolitically driven rally.

2. The increase in production for the new season is set, and apple origin prices continue to decline.

Huawen Futures stated that apple futures prices continued to fluctuate downward, with the main AP2701 contract closing today at RMB 55,428 per ton, down RMB 184 per ton or 3.21% day-over-day. The increased production for the new crop season is now confirmed, with national apple output surpassing 40 million metric tons, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 17%–18%, placing it in a typical "bumper year" cycle. Earlier market concerns regarding the proportion of high-quality fruit have been disproven, as fruit size is generally larger and overall quality better than last year. With strong certainty of increased production in the new season, supply pressure is expected to rise significantly after the concentrated market entry in mid-to-late October, leading to continued declines in origin pricing. On the demand side, terminal procurement this year has been weaker than in previous years, with sluggish consumer demand and slower inventory reduction in cold storage compared to last year. Coupled with an increasing variety of seasonal substitutes during autumn and winter, demand for apples has been further weakened; therefore, apple prices are expected to remain range-bound with a downward bias.