Bitcoin’s recent upswing lost momentum Friday as a massive monthly options expiry failed to push spot prices decisively higher. What expired - 149,000 Bitcoin options with a notional value of about $9.6 billion expired on July 31, per Greeks.live. The BTC put-call ratio was just 0.28 and Greeks.live listed $64,000 as the “max pain” level. - 435,000 Ether options totaling roughly $830 million also expired, with a 0.63 put-call ratio and a $1,850 max-pain level. - Deribit’s monthly options settle at 08:00 UTC on the final Friday of each month. Immediate market reaction - Shortly after settlement, Bitcoin traded near $63,824 and Ether around $1,891. Neither asset broke out of its recent ranges: BTC roughly $63,787–$65,305 and ETH about $1,884–$1,934 in the 24 hours after expiry. - The expiry represented roughly 30% of outstanding BTC contracts, Greeks.live said. Positioning details and nuance - The low BTC put-call ratio looks bullish at first glance because calls dominated open interest, but many calls were clustered well above the market—around $70,000 and $72,000—so they expired worthless unless Bitcoin rallied sharply. - A PerpFinder snapshot of Deribit data just before expiry recorded about $7.39 billion in BTC call open interest versus $2.06 billion in puts (total $9.45 billion), slightly below Greeks.live’s $9.6 billion figure due to timing and price differences. - For Ether, PerpFinder showed ~$499.4 million in calls and ~$311.5 million in puts (total ~$810.9 million), aligning with Greeks.live’s ~0.63 put-call ratio. - Greeks.live noted call gamma exposure was spread across several strikes while put gamma was more concentrated. Concentrated gamma can shape dealer hedging behavior, but it doesn’t by itself predict direction. Max pain and why it didn’t move markets - “Max pain” is the strike where the largest value of options would expire worthless for buyers; it’s not a guarantee prices will converge there. - Historical data and two earlier July expiries showed Bitcoin rarely settles exactly at max-pain levels and typically sees little durable price action after large expiries. That pattern held this week. Macro and flow context - Greeks.live cautioned that “the conditions for a rally are not in place,” pointing to limited capital inflows and weak follow-through from U.S. equity gains. - Spot Bitcoin ETF flows showed some improvement: U.S. funds took in $233.1 million on July 30, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $183.4 million. Flows, however, had been uneven across the week. - Bitcoin remained below the heavy trading area above $65,000 identified by Greeks.live; the asset briefly rose above $65,300 before dropping back below $64,000, suggesting buyers hadn’t flipped that zone into support. Where traders are looking next - Options rolling into August and beyond could matter: about $3.15 billion in BTC options were already positioned for the August 28 monthly expiry and roughly $6.22 billion for September 25, according to Deribit data. - Traders will be watching whether BTC can sustain a move above $65,000, whether spot volume picks up, and whether ETF inflows turn consistently positive—any of which would lend more conviction to a renewed rally. Bottom line: The July 31 expiry removed a large block of options exposure but didn’t resolve Bitcoin’s wider trading range. Without clearer buying pressure and steadier inflows, market participants remain cautious about calling a sustained breakout.
Massive $9.6B Bitcoin Options Expiry Fails to Push BTC Above $65K
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Summary
Bitcoin options market activity hit $9.6 billion on July 31, but BTC price failed to break above $65,000. The put-call ratio was 0.28, with max-pain at $64,400. Most call options expired worthless as Bitcoin stayed below $70,000. Ether options totaling $830 million also expired, with ETH at $1,891. Bitcoin ETF flows improved slightly, but inflows remain uneven. Traders are watching for a sustained BTC price move above $65,000 and stronger fund flows.
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