Market Pressures Increase Likelihood of Fed Rate Hike Next Week

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Fed news indicates rising market pressures—oil prices, Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar—have increased the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July meeting to 37.9%, according to CME’s FedWatch. Traders should also monitor altcoins amid shifting monetary policy. The Fed will announce its decision on July 30 (Beijing time).

ME News reports that as of July 24 (UTC+8), markets are currently under triple pressure on the macro level: Brent crude oil futures have touched $100, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has breached 4.7%, and the U.S. Dollar Index has risen again above 101. Rising oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations; higher Treasury yields are pressuring stock valuations; and a stronger dollar is tightening global liquidity. Meanwhile, market pricing for a potential rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting has increased again. According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July is 37.9%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 62.1%; any rate cut is no longer possible. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, July 30. (Source: BlockBeats)

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