Market Faces Triple Macro Pressures, Probability of Fed Rate Hike Rises to 37.9%

The market is currently under triple pressure: Brent crude oil contracts have touched $100, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 4.7%, and the U.S. Dollar Index has risen above 101. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July is 37.9%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 62.1%. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on July 30 at 10:00 (UTC+8). AI Analysis: Current market pricing for the Fed’s rate decision reflects deep concerns over the continuation of tightening policy. The simultaneous rise in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields has directly increased financing costs, intensifying pressure on financial conditions. The rising probability of a rate hike signals heightened market vigilance toward inflationary rebound risks, forcing investors to reassess the timing of potential policy pivots. This pricing logic reinforces expectations of a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, exerting sustained downward pressure on risk assets.