Macro Outlook: U.S. July CPI to Be Key Focus as Odds of Fed Rate Hike Decline

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Fed news will dominate next week as traders focus on U.S. July CPI and Core CPI data on Wednesday, followed by PPI, retail sales, and consumer confidence. The probability of a September rate hike fell to 44% following weak payroll numbers and downward revisions. U.S. stocks surged sharply, and gold rose above $4,370. Altcoins to watch may respond to central bank signals. Key events include the BOJ meeting minutes and ADP employment data. The Fed remains divided, with speeches and Jackson Hole under close scrutiny.

ChainThink reports that on August 8, market focus will shift next week to U.S. July inflation data, with CPI and core CPI to be released on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday.

Over the past week, expectations of resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, while unexpected job losses in the U.S. non-farm payrolls for July, coupled with downward revisions to the prior two months’ data, caused market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September to fall from approximately 55% to 44%.

The three major U.S. stock indices posted their largest weekly gain since mid-April, and spot gold rose above $4,370 per ounce.

The U.S. semiconductor earnings season will conclude next week, with continued focus on the performance of companies such as Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco (CSCO), and CoreWeave (CRWV) as key AI technology drivers.

Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve persist, and markets will continue to monitor official statements and related independence risks ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Key events next week include: Monday, the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting participants; Tuesday, the U.S. ADP employment change for the week;

Wednesday: CoreWeave earnings call, U.S. July CPI, and EIA crude oil inventories; Thursday: Cisco earnings call, U.S. initial jobless claims, July PPI, and Fed officials' speeches;

Friday: Applied Materials earnings call, U.S. July retail sales, University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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