Ledger CTO Questions 30% BTC Quantum Risk Estimate

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Release Time: 2026/09/28 15:05:17

BTC

$83,929.70-0.63%

Summary

According to Odaily, Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet challenged the claim that only 30% of BTC is vulnerable to quantum attacks, noting that public key exposure is not limited to on-chain data. He emphasized that private key information may still be accessible through xpubs, backups, or transaction logs. Public key exposure during BTC transactions remains a risk, as even unconfirmed transactions reveal keys. Citing research from Google Quantum AI, Guillemet warned that quantum attacks on secp256k1 could take as little as nine minutes. He argued that Bitcoin’s distributed ledger requires a transition to post-quantum cryptography for long-term security.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet has raised concerns about the view that only about 30% of BTC are at risk from quantum computing, with the remaining 70% considered safe due to public key hashing. Previous data from Glassnode showed that approximately 30.2% of BTC have had their spending public keys exposed on-chain; however, Guillemet pointed out that this metric only measures on-chain static states, and unexposed public keys may still exist in xpubs, devices, PSBTs, logs, or backups. Additionally, once a BTC transaction is initiated, the public key becomes publicly visible before confirmation.

Guillemet cites Google Quantum AI research stating that, under the hypothetical scenario of a high-speed quantum computer that does not yet exist, related attacks against secp256k1 could be completed in approximately nine minutes; thus, merely hiding public keys does not mitigate quantum risks, and Bitcoin will ultimately need to migrate to post-quantum cryptography.

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